In the modern NBA, one thing has become apparent for title contending teams: multiple stars are needed to win championships.
Since Boston in 2008 and Miami in 2011, three stars has been the magic number. In an offseason that featured big names like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bradley Beal and James Harden thrown around as potential targets, Miami might not need to be searching for that third star.
He might already be there.
For NBA fans outside of Miami, you’re probably sick of hearing about Tyler Herro at this point. Herro has 2.3 million Instagram followers. He was top ten in athlete social media engagement in the month of November. He had the top-selling jersey in September. Jack Harlow’s newest joint was named after him. He erupted for 37 points in an Eastern Conference Finals game. His infamous snarl after Miami’s Game 3 Finals win went viral. If all this wasn’t enough to draw your attention, he’ll have it undividedly in no time.
Herro isn’t a one-hit wonder. He’s trending towards NBA All-Star status as quickly as this upcoming season. But don’t just take it from a homer, take it from Vegas. Herro has +1400 odds (7th best) to win the Most Improved Player Award and +1500 (5th best) to win the Sixth Man of the Year Award this season.
2019-2020 Season
The 13th pick out of Kentucky earned his role as the 6th man in Miami’s rotation. He posted season averages of 13.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game on 42.8% shooting (38.9% from three). Herro earned All-Rookie 2nd Team honors in a class that is already proving to be one of the most memorable in recent years.
He turned heads in the regular season, but his emergence in the NBA bubble was simply extraordinary. He played a crucial role in Miami’s run to the Finals, posting averages of 16.0 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. He scored in double figures in 20 of 21 games. These numbers were accumulated primarily coming off the bench until he started the final five games of the Finals.
Bar is High
Herro set the franchise record with the most points by a rookie in a playoff game in Game 4 of the ECF with 37. And his success didn’t end there:
- Youngest player to start in a Finals game.
- Made the most 3 pointers made by a rookie in the playoffs and the Finals ever.
- Is one of six rookies in NBA history to accumulate 300+ playoff points.
- Tied the record for most consecutive double-digit scoring playoff games for a rookie.
Rookie Comparisons
After a standout season, it begs the question of where does Herro go from here? Miami looks to remain among the top contenders with key additions made this offseason. Without adding an additional star to the mix like a Bradley Beal, however, Herro’s production becomes critical for that run to occur. His emergence as a star isn’t far-fetched as some might believe. To highlight, here are three players’ rookie seasons in the last decade:
A- 13 PPG 4 RPG 2 APG
B- 13 PPG 4 RPG 2 APG
C- 13 PPG 2 RPG 2 APG
Herro is Player A, Player B is the aforementioned Beal, and Player C is Suns All-Star Devin Booker.
All-Star?
Herro not only had comparable numbers to these all-stars in his first year, he did it with less usage (22.3% compared to 22.9% for Beal and 23% for Booker) and with a higher PER than Booker. Not to mention these players each started 40+ games for their teams their rookie seasons, while Herro only started eight times for a team that made the Finals with two all-stars.
Beal and Booker’s teams both missed the playoffs. In addition, Herro’s field goal percentage (42.8%, 43.3% in the postseason) was superior to Beal (41%) and Booker (42.3%) in their first seasons. Beal averaged 17.1 in year two, while Booker averaged 22.1. Given Herro’s 16 points per game in the playoffs, it isn’t realistic to state that Herro could fall somewhere between these players’ numbers in Year 2 or even eclipse them.
Beal’s numbers seem more realistic due to the crowded backcourt of Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn and Avery Bradley. Nevertheless, it isn’t out of the question that Herro could score 20+ given from what we’ve seen from him as a featured option. The Kentucky product averaged 21.6 points per game in the final five games in the Orlando Bubble, starting only two of them.
In Herro’s five playoff starts, he averaged 13.8 shot attempts. Granted his efficiency wasn’t great in the Finals, but he was only a 20-year-old rookie. The main thing is his shot attempts are encouraging, recognizing that he was the clear second option behind Jimmy Butler in most of those games. That trend will likely continue into the 2020-21 season as Herro’s game and efficiency will improve with age.
The Future
Herro has mentioned numerous times that he has modeled his game after Booker for a few years now. He mentioned this most recently on the “Old Man and the Three” podcast with JJ Redick last week. Per Dan LeBatard, members in the Heat organization believe Herro will eclipse Booker’s ability eventually. From four-star recruit to an all-time NBA rookie season, the sky is the limit for him.
Pat Riley and the organization acknowledge that Herro is a critical part moving forward for the team. Miami recently picked up Herro’s 2021-22 team option. This is important, as Miami has been picky with their money as they prepare for their “master plan” in 2021 to land a big-time star. While that star would certainly help, Herro’s potential development this season opens the door for a team that can be Eastern Conference champions for the next decade.
Herro for Harden?
One of the most interesting developments of the 2020 offseason has been the James Harden saga. News recently broke that Harden has expanded his preferred trade destinations to include Milwaukee and Miami. It has been widely assumed that Herro would be part of the package to potentially land Harden.
While Harden’s ability and production are undeniably one of the greatest of all-time for his position, Miami simply should not trade Herro for him.
Harden simply doesn’t fit with Miami. The Heat might not be interested in a player that has had a usage percentage greater than 35% for his previous three seasons (40.5% in 2018-19). Additionally, Harden is a volume scorer. He hasn’t shot over 45% since 2013-2014, and averaged 28.2 attempts per game last season. Two seasons ago he averaged 32.7 attempts per game without Russell Westbrook.
Off the court, Harden is a hard-worker that would certainly buy into Miami’s culture, but until his on-court style changes, he isn’t someone Riley would or should trade Herro for. If Herro is to become a better Devin Booker as Miami believes, he will be a better fit in Miami’s system for years to come. Not acquiring a 34 PPG scorer may seem crazy to fans, but Miami knows what they have.
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