When MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leaves the court, the Oklahoma City Thunder post an offensive rating of 104.2.
This is slightly better than the Washington Wizards’ 104.9 offensive rating— which ranks last in the NBA.
The Thunder’s lack of offensive production without Gilgeous-Alexander was apparent during their 106-98 loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Friday, Jan. 17. During this loss, the Thunder shot only 12 free throws and scored 22 points in the paint, highlighting their inability to penetrate the defense without SGA.
This has been a theme for this Thunder team in the past, as even when Gilgeous-Alexander is on the court, teams can still try to trap him or provide extra, aggressive defensive help. This strategy forces other Thunder players to create scoring opportunities against a disadvantaged defense.
The Dallas Mavericks utilized a similar strategy in last year’s postseason, forcing players like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren to generate efficient shots in 4-on-3 situations.
In the video below from last season’s playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander is met with multiple help defenders on his drive, and following the pass, the offense quickly fizzles out.
The Thunder often generated open three-pointers, but many of their shooters struggled. During the series, Luguentz Dort and Chet Holmgren combined to shoot 19 of 68 (27.9%) from beyond the arc.
In the playoffs, when the margins thin, relying on shooting variance to win games is difficult— and the Thunder are no exception.
What can the Thunder do to solve this?
The Thunder can work to diversify their offensive approach when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on the floor to counter the aggressive help defense teams enforce.
This can involve secondary actions away from the ball to hold help defenders accountable for guarding their assignments. If most possessions involve stationary offensive players while SGA attempts to create a shot, help defenders are less likely to be penalized for pre-rotating.
Some of these secondary actions could include pin-down or hammer screens to free up shooters. Ideally, these actions would occur on the weak side, away from the ball, engaging both the defender guarding the screener and the recipient.
A hammer screen is a screen that typically frees up a shooter for an attempt from the corner. Many probably remember this buzzer beater from Danny Green in 2019, which came off of a hammer screen by Dwight Howard.
Teams may switch this action, but doing so could hinder their ability to secure defensive rebounds. The Thunder also have offensive players who can benefit from mismatches created by switching.
Potential Roster Upgrades
When Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor, another initiating guard or scoring punch off the bench could benefit the Thunder. Some NBA fans have suggested OKC should pursue players like Collin Sexton or Cameron Johnson to bolster their offense.
Sexton is in the midst of another impressive offensive season with the Utah Jazz. He averages 18.3 points per game on 60% true shooting and is knocking down a career-high 41.6% of his three-point attempts.
Johnson is also having a stellar season for the Brooklyn Nets. He is posting career-highs nearly all across the board, with averages of 19.5 points per game and a true shooting percentage of 66.9%. Johnson also connects on 42.6% of his 7.6 three-point attempts per game.
Both players are talented and would likely require a player and one or more first-round picks for the Thunder to acquire. Additionally, the Thunder will risk disrupting the cohesion of their historically elite defense if they choose to make a trade ahead of the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
Is this even a problem to begin with?
Even if this issue persists, the Thunder could still secure their first championship in franchise history.
In recent years, NBA teams like the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers have won championships despite similar offensive weaknesses. With the league’s top-ranked defense and MVP-level play from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Larry O’Brien Trophy could find its way to Oklahoma City.
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