The NBA has a strange way of staying perpetually dramatic.
Right when it looked like Victor Wembanyama was running away with Defensive Player of the Year, a blood clot in his right shoulder sidelined him for the rest of the season. This was a blow to the gut not only for the Spurs but also for awards voters who were likely to arrive at a near-unanimous decision for DPOY.
A wide open field
The door is now wide open.
Since Wemby’s absence was announced, DPOY odds have already flip-flopped from favoring Jaren Jackson Jr. to Evan Mobley. In fact, Jaren Jackson Jr. fell to the third-highest odds behind both Mobley and Dyson Daniels.
It’s not like Jaren Jackson Jr. has been bad, either. Mobley and Daniels have just been that good.
Over the last 15 games, Mobley has anchored the Cavs’ defense to the second-best defensive rating in the league and a league-best 14-1 record over that time. Meanwhile, in Atlanta, Dyson Daniels’ 178 steals lead the NBA by a whopping 66 steals. He’s the only active NBA player to average 3 steals per game and is on pace to become the first player to record 230+ steals in a season since Gary Payton in 1995-96.
Injuries will also play a major role in shaping the All-Defensive teams. Since the new CBA instituted the 65-game rule to be eligible for postseason awards, it’s been that much harder to predict the teams. For example, five of the ten selections from last year’s All-Defensive teams (Victor Wembanyama, Anthony Davis, Herb Jones, Jalen Suggs, Alex Caruso) are already ineligible for postseason awards due to total games missed. Jrue Holiday is also toeing the line, as he is just two missed games away from being ineligible for postseason honors.
The silver lining of these injuries, though, is that the door has opened for young guys to steal the show. Four out of the five guys in our 1st-team prediction are 25 years old or younger. The 2nd team, alternatively, is rounded out mostly by veterans who aren’t strangers to the All-Defensive team. The task of picking just 10 guys was a painstaking one, as you could make a legitimate argument for any of the honorable mentions (hence the long list).
Enjoy the predictions, and remember, this is just one guy’s opinion.
1st team
Lu Dort
The Dorture Chamber is one of those guys who you absolutely love to have on your team but HATE to play against. The lifeblood of OKC’s historic defense is just a nightmare for opposing guards. You could make the argument that there are more skilled defenders on the Thunder’s roster, but none are peskier, and none set the tone quite like Dort.
Dyson Daniels
The “Great Barrier Thief” is doing something that hasn’t been done since prime Allen Iverson. His 3.0 steals per game puts him in truly elite company, as he’s on pace to be the first player to average three a game since Iverson in 02-03. Even when he’s not swiping the rock, he’s causing a massive disruption in the half-court. His 357 deflections lead the NBA by 117. That’s right. He’s averaging nearly three more deflections PER GAME than any other player in the association.
Amen Thompson
If you could build a wing in a lab, Amen Thompson would be the result. His combination of size, quickness, length, and IQ has quickly transformed him into one of the league’s best defenders at just 22 years of age. His breakout season in Houston has led to the Rockets ‘ fourth-ranked defense in the league.
Evan Mobley
The DPOY favorite has made huge strides over the last two seasons on his way to becoming one of the league’s premier all-around defenders. His ability to play off of Jarrett Allen is what has made Mobley’s ascension remarkable. At a time when everyone doubted the two big schemes, Mobley’s ability to switch and defend on the perimeter has allowed the Cavs’ defense to continually force opponents into low-percentage looks.
Jaren Jackson Jr
The 2023 DPOY has been the do-it-all guy for the Grizzlies again this season. Among a myriad of rotations, JJJ has been the stable force on a top-10 defense that has some defensive shortcomings at other positions. Similar to Mobley, his ability to play off of Zach Edey in the two-big lineups allows the Grizzlies to force contested mid-range shots as well as tough passes.
2nd team
Jalen Williams
You might as well just put the entire Thunder roster to fill out the 2nd team. This spot could have very well gone to SGA or Chet Holmgren (if he were eligible). Jalen gets the nod here because his defensive assignments have been tougher. He gets the toughest non-guard assignment nearly every night, and for good reason. Opponents just have a really hard time making shots over him. He’s also fifth in the league in total steals for good measure.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Bucks have the 9th-ranked defense in the league this season and the third-ranked defense since the All-Star Break. Much of that success can be attributed to Giannis, who has already made five All-Defensive teams in his career. He ranks in the top 20 this season in defensive rating, defensive win shares, and defensive box plus-minus, per Basketball Reference.
Bam Adebayo
Bam is still chasing that elusive DPOY trophy, and it is likely to escape him again this year due to the Heat’s struggles. Speaking of their struggles, Bam is one of the few reasons that they’ve been able to tread water in the midst of the Jimmy Butler saga.
Draymond Green
Among active players, only Chris Paul has more All-Defensive selections than Draymond (by one). Draymond may be on his way to tying CP3 after the Warriors’ recent red-hot stretch. They are 11-2 since trading for Jimmy Butler and have the second-best defensive rating in the league over that span.
The one caveat here is the 65-game rule. Draymond has already missed 14 games this season, and missing 4 more games would disqualify him from this list.
Ivica Zubac
Many would expect to see Rudy Gobert in this spot. But as far as center play goes, Zubac has been flat-out better. The Clippers have the second-best defensive rating in the league, whereas the Wolves have regressed to sixth. Zubac ranks third in the league in defensive win shares and 11th in defensive rating, per Basketball Reference. Anchoring a defense in the Western Conference is not an easy task, and Zu has done an exceptional job.
Honorable Mentions
There’s a whole bunch of guys that are deserving of All-Defensive honors, especially this season. The Celtics have a top five defense in the league and may very well get at least one of their starters on the list. Amen’s twin brother Ausar is having an exceptional year in Detroit. The Magic have caused some serious problems on the defensive end as well, with Goga Bitadze and Jonathan Isaac leading the charge. And you can’t forget the Thunder, who could have a myriad of guys on this list.
With the 65-game rule, at least one of these guys will likely make the team.
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