The Memphis Grizzlies will soon be walking the proverbial tightrope when it comes to the salary cap. Specifically the luxury tax, and looming large the dreaded “second apron”.
The tax itself, if we are to believe Grizzlies GM Zach Kleiman and Owner Robert Pera, isn’t the issue. When the time comes, Memphis will pay. The concern for the franchise — and apparently the league overall — is the second apron of the salary cap. There, numerous penalties and team-building problems can materialize.
Why does this matter to the Memphis Grizzlies? Jaren Jackson Jr. is almost certainly about to be named All-NBA when the regular season ends and is now the betting favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year for a second time. He likely will be eligible for a Supermax contract, and while he may not take the entire amount if he wants it, Memphis should pay it.
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But they’ve already given a max extension to Ja Morant. And an almost (but not quite) max contract extension to Desmond Bane.
A Jackson Jr. Supermax would absolutely mean the luxury tax is coming. And that the dreaded second apron is close.
Enter Kevin Durant? Maybe.
The argument for the move
It certainly would not be for the long haul.
The purpose of such a deal would be two-fold. First, keep Memphis competitive in the short-term. Even at this stage of his career, Durant is one of the NBA’s best players— top ten is a safe bet, and you can argue he’s still on the fringe of the top five. Securing his services via trade would mean acquiring a scoring machine who has only improved as a passer and can still defend, especially now as more of a ‘power forward’ than a wing.
But even though Durant is likely to be traded this summer, there is no guarantee KD would want to come to Memphis. He’s been reportedly on the minds of the Grizzlies for some time. But he also has recently said he wants to finish his career on his terms.
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Could KD be the first superstar not drafted by Memphis to choose the city?
Maybe. But at almost $55 million on an expiring contract next season, it would almost certainly cost the team one of their “big three”. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. being moved would sting. The most likely player parting ways would be Bane. Des is an important piece of what the Grizzlies have built, but not on the same plane as two-time All-Stars Morant and Jackson Jr.
Say Memphis offers Bane and other money. Perhaps Brandon Clarke‘s and/or John Konchar‘s contract. Tag that framework plus two first-round picks for the final year of Durant’s current deal. Would Phoenix say no? Would the Grizzlies be able to move on from two key players in their ascent to the top of the Western Conference— especially if Durant was a rental?
In reality, Memphis may be hoping Durant would be a rental. One year, all-in at the tax and flirting with the second apron, for the title. A Morant/Durant/Jackson Jr. “Big Three” with Jaylen Wells, Zach Edey, GG Jackson, Scotty Pippen Jr., Jay Huff, and Vince Williams Jr. on team-friendly contracts could be a contender. Then KD’s money is gone, Jackson Jr.’s extension kicks in, and the Grizzlies’ salary books look more like other teams that are likely to operate in the tax but a ways away from the second apron.
It’s not probable. But it’s possible. Should the Grizzlies do it?
The argument against the move
A major reason the Grizzlies have done what they have in recent years is they have built from within.
No major component of their roster (sorry Luke Kennard) has been acquired in any player for active player exchange. The team has been established through the NBA Draft, and the benefits when it comes to re-signing your own players are important. Constructing this roster from the ground up starting with the 2018 class and Jaren Jackson Jr. has them where they currently are.
A Durant deal would be the exact opposite of that mindset. Memphis would forsake multiple players who chose the Grizzlies in contract extension talks for an admitted upgrade from outside the organization.
And an upgrade that has moved from team to team, being a part of dysfunctional organization to dysfunctional organization. That isn’t all on Durant, but he has been a constant across several examples of not-so-good endings.
A trade for KD would also, at least for a year, lock Memphis in to a specific roster flaw. It would be difficult to add another true big man, for example, if Clarke was the one parted with. If Memphis moved Konchar instead, plus additional draft capital, it inhibits the future further. Also, it moves you ever-so-closer to that dreaded second apron because Konchar makes roughly $6 million less than Clarke.
It’s hard to argue that the Grizzlies would be worse with Durant, but their identity would change substantially.
The verdict
As much of a cop-out as it may seem, the answer is “wait and see”.
If a Morant/Bane/Jackson Jr. core leads the Grizzlies to the Western Conference Finals or further? Continue the process. If the team suffers a first-round series defeat? It may be time to change the calculus of Memphis’ formation. A new Head Coach (Mike Brown, Sam Cassell, etc.) replacing Taylor Jenkins could be the opening to a change in the roster.
And there is likely no larger shift in the landscape that the Grizzlies could complete than acquiring Kevin Durant.
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