The Lead’s Mac Pham contributed to this article.
As it has been of late, the NFC is once again filled with parity and potential. Which of its seven playoff participants stands the best chance of representing the conference in the Super Bowl?
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers got the last ticket in on the NFC side, but not without paying a price.
Christian Watson and Jordan Love got injured in the season finale against Chicago, and Watson’s injury, in particular, will sideline him indefinitely. Now, they’ll probably turn more towards their bread and butter— a seriously killer running game that’s averaging 4.8 YPC and has created 15 runs of 20+ yards, good for sixth in the NFL.
All that starts with Josh Jacobs, who has had a bounceback year rushing for 1,329 yards.
Here is Jacobs breaking off one of those 20+ yard runs. Jacobs gets to keep the read option handoff and digs his foot into the ground to cut back. He accelerates to the second level and breaks two tackles en route to a touchdown.
Green Bay’s running game is complimented by their defense, which is sixth in points per game, 10th in sacks, and fourth in takeaways. However, a one-dimensional Green Bay offense could become a big issue. They run the ball 51.06% of the time— third-most in football.
However, their 48.78% pass rate is 30th. If teams pick up on their run-heavy tendencies, it could get problematic. Not having an athletic deep threat in Watson could compound those issues as well. It will be interesting to see what plays out against the Philadelphia Eagles.
- Ceiling: NFC Title Berth
- Floor: A 1st round blowout in the Linc.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels.
He is the biggest star on a Washington team that was thinking about success 2-5 years from now. Instead, they’re sitting as the sixth seed, ready to take a real crack at the Lombardi for the first time in decades. Washington’s ticket will be their explosive offense, a unit generating 28.5 points per game. Their rushing attack is elite like the Packers, as they rank third in rushing yards per game with 154.1 a contest.
They also get their fair share of explosive plays in the passing game, as they rank tied for eighth in 40+ yard pass plays with 10 on the year. Daniels’s elite ability to extend plays is an added headache for any opposing defense as well.
Watch Daniels move his eyes and recognize the edge rusher in his face. He extends the play and locates Olamide Zaccheaus wide-open for a 20-yard gain that goes another 30 yards for a touchdown.
However, their flaws lie deep in the trenches. The Commanders are the easiest team to run on in the playoffs—they let up 137.5 yards a game and 4.8 yards per carry, which ranks them 30th and 28th in the league, respectively. On the offensive side, this team will give up a sack or two, ranking eighth in the league with 50 sacks given up all year.
That will have to change, presumably, for the Commanders to make a deep run.
- Ceiling: NFC Title Game.
- Floor: A 1st round knockout at the hands of the Buccaneers.
Minnesota Vikings
That Sunday night game was brutal for the NFC North runner-ups.
Detroit just completely outmuscled Minnesota, which is extremely weird when looking at how they’ve done as a defensive unit. They allow the fourth-fewest yards per carry at 4.1, the second-fewest rush yards per game at 93.4, and they had only allowed three runs of 20+ yards before Sunday (the number is five now).
This defense is also the joint best at taking the ball away, ending the season with 33 turnovers. Behind defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings have the highest blitz rate.
Here, he sends Josh Metellus on a delayed blitz. The pressure Metellus brings forces an underthrown ball, and Dallas Turner intercepts it.
Couple that with their ability to generate explosive plays — second in 20+ yard passing plays — with their elite receiver tandem of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and the result is a great team that got extremely unlucky to have the No. 1 seed in their division.
However, Sunday saw QB Sam Darnold pressured 15 times and sacked twice. That checks out for a team that’s allowed 51 sacks, the ninth most in the NFL. The Lions also exclusively blitzed to get their pressure, and the Vikings don’t block the blitz very well, allowing Darnold to get pressured 49% of the time in Sunday’s contest. It seems the blueprint to beating Minnesota lies in rattling their trenches, although that’s always easier said than done.
- Ceiling: Super Bowl appearance.
- Floor: A disappointing 1st round loss to Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are a weird case.
They took advantage of a weakened NFC West, putting them at the fourth seed. However, the Rams’ strengths are just so-so. They have an elite red zone defense, which allows 50% of drives in the zone to end in touchdowns. That’s the fifth-best in the NFL. They can also protect the passer; their 31 sacks allowed are sixth-best in the league, allowing Matthew Stafford to work in a clean environment.
Watch the center Beaux Limmer and right guard Kevin Dotson cleanly block the stunt pass rush from the Buffalo Bills. That keeps pressure out of Stafford’s face, and Stafford completes a pass downfield.
Now for their weaknesses. Los Angeles is 31st in yards per carry at 3.9. They can’t stop it very well either, coming in at 26th for OPP YPC at 4.6. They’re 25th in RZ scoring offense, 26th in OPP YPG, and have the fifth-most pass plays of 20+ yards given up. That last one could be especially troublesome, seeing as they either get the Lions or Vikings in Round 1, the second and third-best teams at generating 20+ yard pass plays.
- Ceiling: A shocking NFC Title berth.
- Floor: 1st round blowout via the explosive play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have conquered the NFC South for the fourth consecutive year, and they’ve done it on the back of elite quarterback play.
Baker Mayfield has thrown a career-best 41 touchdowns this season, and he’s spearheading the third-best pass offense in football. The Buccaneers are efficient— their 71.45% completion percentage is second-best in football — and explosive, generating the fifth-most 20+ yard pass plays with 58.
Here’s a Mayfield’s completion that went beyond 20 yards. Mayfield is a torque thrower, meaning he relies on his body power to create velocity in his throws. It’s a deep dropback for Mayfield, and he zips one to Mike Evans in stride, who ran a skinny post route for a touchdown.
The biggest test for the Buccaneers will be their secondary play. Tampa Bay allows 243.9 passing yards per game, which is 29th in the entire league. They also allow the eighth-most 20+ pass plays with 54. They host the Commanders on Sunday night, who can attack them vertically. To survive and advance, they’ll have to hone in on the back end.
- Ceiling: Surprise SB Appearance.
- Floor: Elimination via Jayden Daniels masterclass.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles might have the best-built roster for a Super Bowl push.
Their persona as a football team lies with their rushing attack, which is in contention for the best in football. They employ 2024’s rushing champ Saquon Barkley, and they’ve mastered the art of gaining a yard with their Tush Push. Furthermore, the Eagles average 179.3 rushing yards per game, only rivaled by the Baltimore Ravens. Philly has also accumulated 25 runs of 20+ yards, with seven of them going for 40+.
This is all complemented by their defense, which ranks second in scoring, first in pass yards per game, and total yards per game. Philly has both essentials found in most Super Bowl champions: an elite ground game and airtight defense.
For example, here, both outside linebackers drop back in coverage, and middle linebacker Nakobe Dean blitzes the quarterback. The Packers do pick up the blitz, but Zack Braun, who drops back, stays with his man before Reed Blankenship flies in from the safety spot to intercept a pass that hung in the air.
The one thing that might cost them the Lombardi is if they’re forced to turn to their pass game. The Eagles rank 29th in pass yards per game and dead last in pass play percentage. However, they have the weapons and ability to get the job done.
However, when they’ve turned to the air, it’s been touch and go. QB Jalen Hurts had a brilliant outing against the Steelers, a team with a lockdown defense, but struggled with the Buccaneers and Panthers, two teams with inefficient pass defenses.
Furthermore, Hurts is expected to return from injury after sitting for two weeks. If Green Bay can stuff their running attack, the Eagles may be in for some tough sledding on Sunday.
- Ceiling: Super Bowl champions.
- Floor: A first-round shocker.
Detroit Lions
For the second consecutive year, the Detroit Lions are NFC North champions. This time around, however, they’ll be the No. 1 seed for the first time ever. Their claim to fame is the best offense in football. They score more points per game than anyone at 33.2. They’re second in yards per game at 409.5. They’re the second-best passing attack — 263.2 passing yards per game — and averaging 146.4 yards per game on the ground, good for sixth in the league.
They’ve got security in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tim Patrick and Sam LaPorta, home-run hitters in Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams, Jared Goff playing his best football, and the best offensive mind in OC Ben Johnson.
The Lions play with no abandon. It’s a misdirection play where St. Brown takes the handoff and flips his hips. Goff sneaks out of the backfield with a favorable matchup of a slower linebacker covering him, and St. Brown lofts a perfect pass for a touchdown.
That offense has been necessary all year, for their defense has been ravaged by injury all season.
As a result, they’ve been suspect. Specifically, they get torched on the back end, giving up 244 passing yards per game. That’s 30th in football. They have lost their ability to get after the quarterback as well, especially since losing Aiden Hutchinson to a gruesome leg injury. They are 21st in overall sacks and 23rd in sacks per game.
The encouraging bit, however, is that DC Aaron Glenn might have figured out a workaround against the Vikings. Now, was that a one-off performance, or is the Lions’ defense no longer a worry?
- Ceiling: Super Bowl Champions.
- Floor: The defense lets them down at the worst possible time – late in the NFC Title Game or even Round 2.
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