This past weekend, NBA fans received what felt like a “last hurrah” for the current crop of NBA superstars.
The United States men’s basketball team defeated France in the gold medal game of the Paris Olympics. The victory gave the team its fifth straight gold medal and 17th overall dating back to 1936. The iconic trio of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry headlined a stacked roster for the USA. Even then, it took a ridiculous hot streak from Curry — among other things — to push Team USA to the finish line.
Moving forward, the journey to Olympic gold in 2028 and beyond will grow only more challenging for USA men’s basketball. Yes, the rest of the world (broadly speaking) continues to gain on the level of American basketball.
Deep down, that only just scratches the surface. USA men’s basketball faces several broad issues that could end America’s reign as the most dominant team on the planet.
Who takes the place of the current superstars?
Typically, the NBA builds “eras” based on its superstars. The 1960s marked the reign of Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and others. The next two decades included some well-known names— Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird. That extended into the nineties with a laundry list of legends who appeared on the 1992 Dream Team. Today, NBA fans admire the Durants, LeBrons and Currys out there.
So what comes next?
Who becomes the “face” or “faces” for American basketball is a bit of a mystery. Dating back to 2019, five of the last six NBA MVPs were foreign-born players:
- 2018-19: Giannis Antetokounmpo
- 2019-20: Giannis
- 2020-21: Nikola Jokić
- 2021-22: Jokić
- 2022-23: Joel Embiid
- 2023-24: Jokić
That’s counting Joel Embiid, who could have suited up for the French national team. That also doesn’t include names like Luka Dončić, Victor Wembanyama or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, among others.
Only so many years remain for the likes of LeBron, KD and Curry. That next generation of American-born stars remains a ginormous TBD. Maybe that ends up being someone like Anthony Edwards or Jayson Tatum. But does it have the same feel?
American basketball superstars tend to do more than dominate. They transcend borders. There’s a so-called “aura” to these iconic names. Look no further than the cultural impact of the ’92 team, or even the 2008 Redeem Team.
Moving past this current generation, international players are the ones that have dominated and will look to continue doing so. Again, who becomes the next “poster child” of American basketball? It’s an open mystery.
Exponential growth internationally
Then, we need to look at the pure numbers and Team USA needs to understand this new reality.
The quality of world basketball is becoming really good, but it goes beyond just the superstars.
At the Paris Olympics, 51 present-day NBA players made national team rosters. That included 81 players with current or previous NBA experience. Both of those marked new records. The previous record was 49 for current-day players, set at the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.
Let’s look back to 1992. At the time, the non-Team USA rosters included 12 total players with experience in the league. This year, it was 69. That’s a 475% increase after just seven Olympics.
Heading into the 2023-24 season, NBA rosters featured 125 total international players on opening night. Again, another record.
That trend also extends to the NBA draft. Look no further than what played out this year. International prospects dominated the top of draft boards in the 2024 cycle. The top-two picks and three of the top-six were non-U.S. prospects. In total, 20 international players were selected in the 2024 draft which was the third-most ever since the NBA switched to a two-round draft in 1989.
The landscape is shifting massively across the globe. The numbers make it hard to argue against that.
Troubles at home with the AAU and college system
Time to focus back at the grassroots level of U.S. basketball. The world model is starting to become the better one. Here in the U.S., the “AAU system” is inherently flawed, self-centered and fundamentally bad for the future of Team USA competing at the world stage.
Specifically, the European model for basketball development focuses on just that. It’s mainly about fundamentals and building up within the team system. Development from the ground up takes center stage.
That’s not the case in the U.S. This comment from commissioner Adam Silver in February to ESPN is very telling:
“If you’re seeing now what we’re seeing in terms of that close to 30 percent of the league, players born outside the United States, it’s clear that the development is very different in many of those programs outside the United States,” Silver told ESPN. “There’s more of a focus on practice, less of a focus on games, which seems to be the opposite of many of the youth programs in the United States.”
Dating as far as 2016, the alarms were raised with the AAU system. Too much individualism. Prioritizing winning over development. Too many games and too little practice. Former NBA players like Jamal Crawford have also expressed legitimate concern over these problems. Other large-scale U.S. development programs likewise are basically labeling this a wake-up call.
To an extent, NIL and the current college system also plays a role in all of this.
Yes, players deserve to get what they are worth. It will be tough to argue against that. The challenge: it inherently builds a “me first” culture in basketball. Not enough compensation, minutes or time with the ball? No worries, just transfer to a new team. Development becomes secondary, again, in all of this.
What does this mean for USA men’s basketball moving forward? Clearly, the influence of the NBA at the world level is great for all parties involved. Specifically for USA basketball performing well in Olympic competition, that could make the path ahead way more difficult.
Yet, the world getting better is only part of the equation. Fundamentally, the American basketball system is deeply flawed. If it doesn’t change, we might look at 2024 for USA men’s basketball as a “last hurrah” after all.
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