The New York Yankees’ $324 million ace, Gerrit Cole, is going through one of the worst stretches of his career at the most critical time. Cole’s recent rough outings, capped by a brutal beatdown from the New York Mets over the weekend, have put the Yankees in a tough spot.
Cole has been the Yankees’ best pitcher of this era, but that didn’t stop the home crowd’s rain of boos on the former Cy Young Award winner. With deep playoff aspirations, the Yankees need to fix Cole before his collapse drags into October.
Stung by the Home Run Bug
The New York Mets clobbered Cole on Saturday. In just 4 1/3 innings, he gave up five earned runs, which unraveled into a 12-2 blowout in the Bronx. Cole surrendered nine hits, three of them homers, including a leadoff home run to Francisco Lindor.
That outing followed another disaster against the Padres, where the 36-year-old served up four home runs, including back-to-back-to-back jacks to open the game. Those seven homers over his last two starts are the most in his career over that span.
His last two starts have been frustrating. A solo homer is a manageable mistake, but giving up six solo shots will leave a mark. This home run bug has wrecked Cole’s usual efficiency on the mound.
Cole has already matched his home run total from his entire 2023 Cy Young season. With his HR/9 hovering near a career-high mark, he has now fallen to 8-9 with a 3.67 ERA in 20 starts this season.
More Than Just a Couple Bad Outings
Cole has had more than a couple of shaky outings. His recent struggles since late August have raised concerns.
Over his last four starts, Cole has an ERA of almost six (5.96) in 22.2 innings pitched. In those four starts, the Yankees have gone 1-3, which is not good. When you have your top pitchers on the mound, those games become must-wins, especially since the first-place Rays rarely lose.
Every pitcher struggles over the 162-game season, and fans shouldn’t worry too much about this cold stretch. In 2023, Cole suffered the same fate in mid-August. In three starts, he allowed 12 runs in 17 innings. Now, Cole must search for answers on how to navigate this slump.
“I think it’s something that we’ve got to figure out, for sure,” Cole said via Bryan Hoch. “It’s just one of those times in the season that you’ve got to start making adjustments. Sometimes adjustments are hard, but that’s the demand of the game. You’ve got to find a way to get through it and go forward.”
What Is Cole’s Problem?
Coming off Tommy John surgery, Cole was expected to face an uphill battle as he tried to recapture his vintage self. Surprisingly, his velocity is actually up from 2024, when he last pitched. He has a career-low walk rate (4.6%) with a career-best strike percentage (68.5%). So why isn’t this translating into a more dominant version of Cole?
His problem is he can’t generate swing-and-misses. Against the Mets, Cole got only three whiffs on 40 swings. Cole’s whiff rate has completely bottomed out at 21.6, his lowest mark since 2016.
Cole is a power pitcher; he will overpower the hitter, but that doesn’t seem to be the case now, even with his velocity up. He didn’t get one whiff on his 38 four-seam fastballs against the Mets. In San Diego, he got only 12 swing-and-misses on 47 pitches. Looking back at the other two starts in this four-game span, the drop-off is alarming. Hitters have swung and missed just 20 times on 93 pitches.
Why Can’t Cole Miss Bats?
Hitters are in attack mode versus him. Cole throws his fastball 52% of the time, with the rest a three-pitch off-speed mix. His teammate and Cy Young frontrunner, Cam Schlittler, throws his fastballs almost 90% of the time, but hitters look completely overmatched even though they know what’s coming. Despite the predictable fastball diet, he still boasts an elite whiff rate.
The difference between the two is how many strikes they throw in the zone. Cole throws too many strikes over the heart of the plate, and hitters are pouncing on them. He leads the league in pitches thrown in the zone at 53.6%, more than 4% higher than Schlittler’s.
This has led to Cole getting shelled over the past few starts. His pitches are ending up in the middle of the plate rather than the corners. Cole’s 8.4 Meatball% is the seventh worst in baseball, and no matter how bad a major league hitter is, they will crush middle-middle pitches.
It doesn’t help Cole that he hasn’t gotten a feel for his off-speed yet. When returning from Tommy John, feel and control are usually the last things to come back. Cole’s breaking balls have been well below his career average. Once an elite put-away weapon in the 93rd percentile just two years ago, now his breaking ball’s run value has collapsed to the 23rd percentile. Cole has only one pitch he can rely on, which would be a disaster in October.
Is Carlos Rodon a Better Option?
If Cole continues this mudslide into the playoffs, then the Yankees have to face reality with how they handle him. Right now, he’s slotted as the third starter come October, but Carlos Rodon has made a strong case for why he should be there.
All things likely, the Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series. Historically, the Red Sox have dominated Cole. He has a 5.30 ERA over 112 innings against Boston, including a 6-2 loss in the 2021 Wild Card Game, when he gave up three runs in just two innings of work.
The Yankees should not put Cole on this Wild Card roster and instead give Rodon the ball if it comes down to a third game. Since the end of June, Rodon has pitched to a 1.86 ERA, the fifth-best among starters with at least 20 innings pitched. Coincidentally, Rodon has the same ERA against the Red Sox in two starts this year.
It will be a tough decision given how reliable Cole has been in the playoffs, but saving him to face the Rays could benefit the Yankees. His numbers are much better versus the Rays, with an ERA nearly two full runs lower than his mark against Boston. If the Yankees want to make a deep playoff run, they’ll have to be careful how they use Cole until he can fix himself.
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