You may or may not have heard, but the Memphis Grizzlies have hit a bit of a cold spell – especially defensively.
The holiday season has not been too joyous for the Grizzlies. Injury issues continue (although they’re easing), and wins have cooled off as the schedule has toughened up. Most notably, Memphis is now 0-3 against the Houston Rockets on the season, meaning that the Rockets are clearly the No. 2 team in the Western Conference standings.
For now, at least. Regular season games, of course, are different animals than a seven-game playoff series. And Memphis’ eventual (hypothetical?) return to health, plus their own postseason experience as a unit, may make the Grizzlies a postseason favorite against Houston.
But Memphis fans shouldn’t be too confident in that take. The Rockets have a young core that will only continue to get better. The same can be said for the mighty Oklahoma City Thunder. Plus, the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets still loom large over whatever postseason goals the Grizzlies may have.
Attempts to improve the roster
It makes sense, then, that Memphis was recently connected to trade talks for the likes of Dorian Finney-Smith.
The Grizzlies were reportedly at the finish line of making a deal with the Brooklyn Nets…until the Lakers swooped in at the last minute to acquire the combo forward.
The package being discussed included John Konchar, Luke Kennard, and a protected first-round pick for DFS. The protections attached were allegedly the hangup, and Los Angeles put together a more attractive package for the Nets.
In the two and a half weeks that have followed, Konchar and Kennard have seen opportunities to solidify their importance to Memphis. Kennard is shooting over 45% from beyond the arc and averaging 4.5 assists per game in January. Konchar has started some games for the Grizzlies and remains one of the most elite rebounding wings in the entire league.
This, of course, also builds trade value for the Grizzlies’ front office to work with as the trade deadline approaches. So, as the roster gets healthier and Kennard and Konchar theoretically get pushed further back down the bench, the opportunity to revisit this specific — or specific-ish — package remains.
Who would be the best target for Kennard, Konchar, and a future first-round pick (or two)? Let’s fire up the ol’ Trade Machine.
Deni Avdija, Forward, Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija may be the “PERFECT” fit for this kind of trade for several reasons – even if it likely costs the Grizzlies some additional draft capital.
A Konchar/Kennard/2025 1st lightly protected and 2027 1st more heavily protected could get the job done.
At this stage, Portland is not a competitive team and is still trying to better cultivate a rebuild. And while the 24-year-old, 6-foot-9 combo wing fits that mold in theory, acquiring picks and creating future cap flexibility may be worth moving on early from Avdija after trading for him this past summer.
Portland seems to be that far away, at least at the moment.
Avdija has been in and out of the Trail Blazers’ starting lineup this season as Portland tries to find their “fit” of wing talent. At times, Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara have been in starting wing roles alongside Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Deandre Ayton.
Results are relatively mixed – Portland is 7-13 in games where Avdija has started and 6-12 in games where he hasn’t. Considering the contracts of Simons, Ayton, and Grant, plus the potential of Sharpe, Camara, and Scoot Henderson, it’s possible Avdija is the best of the rebuilding Blazers to get more assets via trade.
Enter the Grizzlies.
The Memphis fit
Bigger wings are thriving in Memphis’ new-look offense (see Jake LaRavia, Santi Aldama).
While Konchar’s rebounding and Kennard’s shooting would be missed, Avdija fits the “big wing” model much better than they do. And that new contract he signed is descending in nature — much like Jaren Jackson Jr.’s current deal. This means that Avdija will make LESS year to year as the contract goes on — something that should be very attractive to a Grizzlies team that’s about to have three max or near-max contracts on their books.
Avdija is a very good creator of offense for others for his position — 83rd percentile per Cleaning the Glass — and he both rebounds and creates “stocks” at average or better levels for his position. All that, combined with him currently shooting 36% from three, makes for a very attractive trade target. He is even near the bottom of the NBA for forwards in turnover rate— he’d fit in with the Grizzlies nicely!
All jokes aside, Avdija really may be the best-case scenario for Memphis at this stage. He can be part of the core long-term. He can shoot and create for himself and others. There’s evidence that he can be an even better defender than he currently is— Wizards opponents shot over 6% worse from the field when he was on the floor last season.
For a team that has operated as if Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are their “big three”, Avdija may be Memphis’ best bet at a cost effective “Core Four”.
“All-in” for Avdija
Avdija is 24 years old and fits the timeline of this Grizzlies roster.
He has a game that can go off (18 games of 15 or more points this season) but can also help magnify those around him through spacing and movement. Perhaps most importantly, that $15.6 million salary means that the Grizzlies can acquire him and not trade Marcus Smart or Brandon Clarke. You’d almost certainly have to do that to get the likes of Cam Johnson from the Nets or another “bigger name”.
This is why, for Memphis specifically, attaching two first-round picks without any further compensation back beyond Avdija would be worth it. Washington got two firsts and two seconds for Avdija, plus Malcolm Brogdon (to essentially make money work). Avdija hasn’t done much to suggest he’s not still worth that. Kennard’s expiring deal and Konchar’s relatively team-friendly cap number for an end-of-rotation wing make up the difference.
But what if it doesn’t? What if Portland wants second-rounders, too, to recoup what they lost in the Washington deal as best they can? Or maybe even an additional first-round pick with protections attached and perhaps a little more? A 2025, 2027, and 2029 1st – plus Kennard and Konchar?
You do it. Without blinking.
The strategic Godfather moment
Memphis is staring down a Western Conference that’s only getting better. And the Grizzlies, as a team that figures to be in the playoff mix as long as Morant, Bane, and Jackson Jr. are donning Beale Street Blue, need to consolidate. This trade (and the signing of Cam Spencer to a full roster deal off of his current two-way that would follow) makes the Grizzlies whole. This season, next season, the team is locked in. Portland isn’t ready to be made “whole” by a Deni Avdija trade acquisition.
Memphis is.
A starting five of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Deni Avdija, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Zach Edey. A bench consisting of Scotty Pippen Jr., Cam Spencer, Jaylen Wells, GG Jackson, Vince Williams Jr., Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, and Jay Huff.
That’s a team that can compete both now and moving forward. While still having the capacity to hold off on paying the luxury tax for another season.
Securing the ‘final piece’ to a championship hopeful’s proverbial puzzle? That’s worth numerous draft picks and making the Trail Blazers an offer they simply cannot refuse.
The question is – does Memphis agree?
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