On Sunday, the New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round. In a 16-3 Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday, New England leaned on its defense, which really helped them control the pace of the game.
That same formula may be required again on Sunday against the Houston Texans. With a trip to the AFC Championship on the line, maintaining and building on that momentum from the Wild Card round will be critical in ensuring the Patriots move on.
Defense Wins Championships
Against the Chargers last week, the Patriots played perhaps their most defensively sound game of the season at the perfect time. With the offense starting slowly, New England’s defense controlled the game well enough to keep itself in striking distance of its first playoff win since Super Bowl LIII.
That performance will have to translate against the Texans, who are possibly the Patriots’ toughest opponent to date this season. In the Wild Card round, New England’s defense was dominant, forcing a turnover and recording six sacks. On top of the sacks, the Patriots also had 11 QB hits, which was the second most by any team in the Wild Card round, trailing only the Texans, who had 12.
The Texans’ offense went into this year’s playoffs as the 13th-ranked scoring unit in the NFL. Throughout the regular season, they proved to be great at taking care of the ball, committing the second-lowest turnovers in the NFL. Fortunately for the Patriots, the Texans committed the eighth-most penalties by any offense this season, which is an area New England will hope to take advantage of in Sunday’s game.
Defensively, the Patriots will need to be able to stop the run. Houston was able to control the game against the Steelers by establishing a strong running game behind Woody Marks, who ran for 112 yards and a score, on almost six yards per carry. Having Milton Williams and Christian Barmore up front gives the Patriots a good chance to negate the Texans’ rushing attack.
Injuries That Could Shape the Matchup
In the Wild Card game against the Steelers on Monday, Texans wide receiver Nico Collins left the game with a concussion. His status against the Patriots remains in question, as Texans Head Coach DeMeco Ryans stated that “We’ll see how the week goes”. Nico Collins will be very tough to replace for the Texans if he does not play on Sunday.
As for the Patriots, they lost Pro Bowl cornerback Christian Gonzalez, also to a concussion, against the Chargers. Gonzalez did not return to the game and has since been placed in the league’s concussion protocol. Head Coach Mike Vrabel stated, “How long that lasts, I don’t know, but when you don’t return to the game…that would put you in the protocol”. Vrabel went on to further say that “Hopefully, we’ll get him back.” If Nico Collins returns, the Patriots will desperately need Gonzalez to suit up.
What New England Needs Offensively
The Patriots’ offense enters this game coming off a performance that wasn’t their best. Drake Maye fumbled the ball twice (only one was recovered by Los Angeles) and threw an interception. Needless to say, New England has a lot of work to do before it is ready to take on one of the league’s top defensive units.
In the regular season, the Texans had the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL. Houston’s defense is anchored by a physical front that has made opposing offenses look sluggish. The Texans did not give up 30 points in a game until Week 18 against the Indianapolis Colts. For that game, the majority of the Houston starters only played the first half.
The Patriots will have a lot to deal with offensively, as the Texans have two first-team All-Pro players on the defensive side of the ball. Will Anderson Jr. recorded 12 sacks on the year and forced three fumbles. He will likely make a huge impact against the Patriots’ offensive line, which struggled in the Wild Card.
In the secondary, the Patriots will have to look out for Derek Stingley Jr., who had four interceptions and 15 pass deflections. Stingley also earned his second consecutive first-team All-Pro. The star corner will definitely give the Patriots’ offense fits if they do not game-plan for him.
Ultimately, New England’s offense doesn’t need to be perfect, but it must be more disciplined than last week. Limiting turnovers and capitalizing on scoring opportunities will be essential against the Texans’ defense. The biggest emphasis will be on the offense. New England will need to execute with efficiency. If they can accomplish that, they give themselves a legitimate chance to advance to the AFC Championship.
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