Which NFL Week 5 Games Matter the Most?

Welcome to the “Watchability Stakes” – a ranking of the weekly matchups ahead in the NFL. Games are tiered based on three factors: narrative, implications and general intrigue. You will be seeing The Lead’s NFL game watchability rankings at the start of the week to get you ready for football action.

One month down, several more to go.

We’ve reached a pivotal point in the first half of the NFL calendar. First, this week marks the first time that some teams will finally start using up their byes. Four teams have a bye this week: Philadelphia and Detroit in the NFC, Los Angeles (Chargers) and Tennessee in the AFC.

More importantly, Week 5 feels like an important one where the great teams can separate themselves from the ones sounding the panic alarm.

Just two unbeaten teams remain (Minnesota and Kansas City). Both remain shocking for different reasons – the Vikings for how surprising their start has been and the Chiefs because injuries and slow starts have led to close calls.

On the flip side, there’s this whopping stat: out of 28 teams in action this week, 21 are either 2-2 or 1-3. For the .500 teams, Week 5 marks a chance to take a slow start and turn it into something. For the 1-3 franchises, this weekend appears to be now or never on being serious in 2024. Even for some 3-1 teams (clear example: Pittsburgh), it’s an important time to see if the early start was legit or not.

Logistically, it’s also a weird week. Finally, we return to just one Monday Night game. In exchange, we lose several Sunday games this week due to the byes, and there’s one London game with a bright and early kickoff for any fans in the United States.

Who’s got the most at stake this week? Let’s get to the “Watchability stakes“ rankings for Week 5:

Tier 1: Absolutely can’t miss

Buffalo Bills (3-1) vs. Houston Texans (3-1) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Easily the best game of the early-afternoon window. Two clear AFC contenders facing question marks. Buffalo started 3-0 then was trounced on Sunday Night Football by Baltimore. Houston barely defeated a winless Jacksonville team. There isn’t a lot of pressure, but a loss would make that team not feel great. Bonus points for AFC seeding down the road also factoring in.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – Thursday @ 8:15 pm EST

• 2024 proved one thing so far: the NFC South may not be as much of a laughing stock as most thought. Kirk Cousins and company return to primetime for a pivotal division game. This one will matter a lot come November and December. Baker Mayfield once again dominated Philly last week and will have a chance to push the Bucs to a 4-1 start on Thursday night.

Tier 2: This could be fun

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) – Sunday @ 8:20 pm EST

• Like Bills vs. Texans, the team with the loss in this one starts to doubt the future. Dallas could get a signature win in the nighttime slate after barely squeaking by the Giants last Thursday. Pittsburgh had a 3-0 start come to a halt at the hands of the Colts. Bonus for being an “offense vs. defense” showdown, all other implications aside.

New York Jets (2-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-0) – Sunday @ 9:30 am EST

• If you’re willing to stomach the early wake-up, it’s a game worth watching. Talk about an appetizer before the rest of your Sunday football slate begins. The Jets’ offensive lull versus Denver is a cause for concern. Minnesota is playing like a top-three team in the league. Pivotal for both side’s momentum. Plus, overseas games always tend to play out “weird.”

New Orleans Saints (2-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) – Monday @ 8:15 pm EST

• Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are back to play a primetime game versus an NFC South opponent. Like Atlanta, New Orleans’ offense can match the Chiefs if it’s going. Can the Saints bounce back from a tough loss to the Falcons last weekend?

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• A key divisional matchup where both teams are feeling good after securing wins last week. Baltimore could be 3-2 after starting the year 0-2 and play more like the contender many thought they’d be. After beating out Carolina, a win for the Bengals puts that team right back in the playoff conversation. However, a loss could mean this just isn’t the year for Joe Burrow and company.

Cleveland Browns (1-3) vs. Washington Commanders (3-1) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• The third of a must-see three games during the 1 p.m. window (for context, the other three 1 p.m. games rank Tier 4 or worse). Jayden Daniels is a can’t-miss quarterback with how elite the Commanders look on offense. Can a talented Browns defense do enough to stop them? This could also be the end of the line for Cleveland in some capacity if mistakes and offensive struggles continue in this one.

Tier 3: Decent floor, high upside

Arizona Cardinals (1-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2) – Sunday @ 4:05 pm EST

• Another key divisional game where a loss could mean a lot down the road. Like Cleveland, this feels like do-or-die time for Arizona even after a promising start. San Francisco is starting to find its groove, but health remains a concern (specifically with no Christian McCaffrey in the mix). Probably the most intriguing game in an otherwise underwhelming late-afternoon window.

Green Bay Packers (2-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (1-3) – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST

• Similar situation as above: major playoff implications and a scenario where it could be panic time for the loser. Both are coming off losses.

Tier 4: It could always be worse

Carolina Panthers (1-3) vs. Chicago Bears (2-2) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Gets buried due to the loaded 1 p.m. window. However, Carolina is at least average now with Andy Dalton. Chicago has had offensive struggles of its own with Caleb Williams. This will be a close game no matter how it plays out.

New York Giants (1-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST

• New York’s close loss to Dallas at least makes this intriguing. Even after a loss to Detroit, Seattle’s offense can clearly move the ball without issue.

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Another divisional matchup where the implications aren’t too critical. Anthony Richardson‘s health in question robs fans of an interesting QB matchup. The real question: what happens if Jacksonville moves to 0-5? It’s narrative keeping this game at Tier 4 minimum.

Tier 5: Snooze Fest

Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) vs. Denver Broncos (2-2) – Sunday @ 4:05 pm EST

• Weird having two 2-2 teams both in Tier 5. Yet, neither offense looks amazing and when either struggles, it can get very bad very quickly. This has a chance to sneak into Tier 4, in hindsight.

Miami Dolphins (1-3) vs. New England Patriots (1-3) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Tyler Huntley vs. Jacoby Brissett… who’s ready for this QB battle of the century?