The knockout round of the NBA Cup is looming, and it presents an interesting group of teams. The 20-1 Oklahoma City Thunder are the heavy favorites to win the tournament, but in a single-elimination format, anything is possible.
With this format in mind, determining which matchups would be best for the Thunder will be difficult.
Thunder versus Suns
The Phoenix Suns have been one of the Thunder’s most formidable opponents of the season; OKC beat them 123-119 to secure West Group A. The Suns’ committee of impressive wing and guard play has been their recipe for success this season, and this game was no different. It took a heroic fourth-quarter performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to pull off the win.
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The differences between the upcoming game and their previous matchup are the return of Aaron Wiggins and All-Star Jalen Williams in the swing of the season. J-Dub’s first game of the season came against Phoenix, and it was clear that he needed more in-game reps to get back to his usual self on-ball.
Wiggins is also no small addition — he has provided exceptional bench scoring and rebounding throughout the season.
This game is certainly not a “gimme”, but with OKC’s familiarity with the team and the talent mismatch, this should be a Thunder win.
Lakers or Spurs?
The Thunder had a ruthless performance against the Los Angeles Lakers this season, beating them 121-92, but have yet to face the San Antonio Spurs. Although the Lakers will likely have LeBron James in this matchup, the Thunder match up well against LA.
Despite Victor Wembanyama‘s injury, the Spurs have stayed in playoff contention. They are 5-2 with him out. De’Aaron Fox is leading the way, averaging over 26 points and seven assists in this stretch. Along with Fox, the young guard duo Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper have been superb.
Although the Spurs have been good without Wemby, Los Angeles’ star power is too great to want to face them more than San Antonio in a single-game series.
Which East Team Would Be the Best Matchup?
If the Thunder reach the Cup championship, the Orlando Magic would be their best matchup. Aside from having the worst record among the four teams, they are by far the worst three-point shooting team. The other three teams are in the top 11 in three-point percentage, while Orlando is at 22nd (34.7%).
OKC is much more equipped to play a scrappy, low-scoring match with the Magic than a flamethrower high-volume shooting game against the other teams. As for player matchups, they are a good fit — able to put J-Dub on Paolo Banchero (if healthy) or Franz Wagner, and their guards have the ability to take advantage of the Magic’s turnover-prone guards.
In Banchero’s absence, Orlando has looked like a completely new team. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and put up improved offensive numbers. This newfound offense allows them to go far in the Cup, but their flaws are still evident, and they would likely hit an offensive wall against the Thunder.
Although the Thunder have yet to play any East Cup teams, Orlando would be a terrific matchup for the reigning champs.
Who Would Be the Toughest Matchup?
The most difficult matchup would be facing the Toronto Raptors in the Cup Championship. Toronto has been a surprisingly great team, sitting at third in the Eastern Conference. They do not rely on a superstar to take over games; instead, they have numerous scoring threats. They have three players averaging over 19 points per game, and six players are averaging double-digit points.
Even though they have unselfish, well-rounded scoring, their team’s strength is their defense. They are fifth in defensive rating, second in opponent three-point percentage, and fourth in opponent points per game. Their phenomenal length gives them an edge over most teams on defense, and has led Toronto to force overwhelming turnover numbers (16.2 per game).
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With Isaiah Hartenstein possibly missing the Championship, Toronto will have the size advantage, along with formidable shooting threats and playmaking threats. It is hard to choose a team over the Thunder, but the Raptors are an exceptional team with a great chance of winning the NBA Cup.
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