Who Will Win Their First-Round Match in the CFP?

Of the 136 FBS college football programs, only 12 remain in contention for a national title.

The top four seeds will get a first-round bye in the playoffs, while the other eight duke it out for a chance to meet a top-four team in the next round. Last year, seeds five through eight won not only all their first round games, but also their second round games against the top four. Will the middle ground be as successful this year?

#5 Oregon vs #12 James Madison

This should be one of, if not the biggest, blowouts in college football playoff history. This is the second year that a Group of Five conference team has entered the College Football Playoff, but last year’s Boise State Broncos were miles better than this year’s James Madison Dukes.

Last year’s Boise State team had Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty and played undefeated No. 1 Oregon to a three-point loss. That team was so good that it was ranked above both the Big 12 and ACC champions.

On the other hand, James Madison would not have even been in this year’s playoffs had Duke not beaten Virginia for the ACC title. Their toughest opponent this year was Louisville, a team that finished 10th in the weak ACC, and even Louisville beat them by 14.

Indeed, James Madison is 12-1, but is that really so impressive considering their strength of schedule ranked 123rd among the 136 FBS teams?

Their opponent, the Oregon Ducks, also finished the season with only one loss on their record. That blemish was a 30-20 loss to Indiana in a game that was closer than the score indicates, as it was tied deep into the fourth quarter.

This Ducks team also beat No. 16 USC by 15 a few weeks back and defeated Penn State at their Whiteout event, the most hostile environment in the sport.

Score prediction: Oregon 42, James Madison 13

#6 Ole Miss vs #11 Tulane

The big story in this game is how Ole Miss responds to losing head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU. This was the school’s best football season in recent memory, as the Rebels were a blown lead to Georgia away from competing for the SEC Championship. However, due to college football’s broken coaching carousel, they will enter the playoffs without the coach who led them to this point.

Ole Miss has had a fantastic offense with senior quarterback Trinidad Chambliss at the helm. They’ve scored at least 30 points in every game but two, and they scored 24 points in those two other outings.

However, their defense has struggled at times, but it shouldn’t be a problem against Tulane, whom they beat handily in their first meeting earlier this year.

Ole Miss stomped Tulane 45-10 in their September matchup on both sides of the ball. They held Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff to 5-for-17 passing for 56 yards.

Chambliss, on the other hand, passed for 307 yards and two touchdowns while also leading the Rebels on the ground with 112 rushing yards.

While Tulane has improved since then, it won’t be enough, even against a Lane Kiffin-less Ole Miss team.

Score prediction: Ole Miss 33, Tulane 20

#7 Texas A&M vs #10 Miami

Here’s where things get spicy. Miami was the No. 2 team in the country for a few weeks early on in the season. Both of their losses have been close games, especially the loss to SMU, which came in overtime.

Texas A&M had a couple of close calls as well, except they won those close calls. They defeated Arkansas by three and mounted a comeback down 30-3 to South Carolina to win by one.

Heading into rivalry week, they were undefeated and ranked No. 3 in the country. But their conference schedule consisted of the entire bottom half of the SEC, and they had to face Texas in their first real test since Notre Dame in Week 3. Texas would proceed to defeat A&M by 10, leading many to believe the Aggies are frauds.

Miami vs. Texas A&M should be a great matchup, but momentum is key. Texas A&M struggled severely in two of their last three matchups. In both of them, quarterback Marcel Reed threw two picks.

The Miami Hurricanes are coming off a dominant victory over Pittsburgh, 38-7. While their quarterback, Carson Beck, has had an inconsistent college career, he has playoff experience and big game experience from his time at Georgia. Miami has the slight edge here.

Score prediction: Miami 31, Texas A&M 27

#8 Oklahoma vs #9 Alabama

Just like Ole Miss vs. Tulane, this one is a rematch from earlier this season. Just about a month ago, Oklahoma beat Alabama ever so slightly, 23-21. However, both teams are leaking oil, and this matchup is just two teams competing to be the sacrifice to Indiana in the next round.

The Oklahoma Sooners have been heavily reliant on their defense to achieve their victories. Against LSU, the Sooner defense kept Oklahoma in the game until a fourth-quarter blunder by the LSU defense handed the Sooners an easy go-ahead touchdown. Without that massive touchdown, the Sooners likely miss the playoffs.

Oklahoma’s defense also held the once-potent Alabama offense to a scoreless fourth quarter to secure that victory and held Missouri to just six points.

Alabama’s offense is doing better than the Oklahoma offense, but they haven’t scored 30 points against a power conference team since mid-October, when they dropped 37 on Tennessee.

However, their defense is nowhere near as good as Oklahoma’s, and the past two games have not looked good for the Crimson Tide. Their margin of victory against Auburn was smaller than Alabama fans would have liked, and they got absolutely destroyed by Georgia in the SEC title game, 28-7.

This game is bound to be close, just like the first meeting, but for all the wrong reasons. That said, Oklahoma’s atrocious offense won’t be enough to beat the same team twice in a season.

Score prediction: Alabama 23, Oklahoma 16