By Mark Wallis, Co-Host of Weekday Wagers and CEO of JustTheStatsSports.com
Not every underdog needs to win outright to be worth backing.
That distinction matters this week. One of our Week 5 dogs is in a matchup the model views as essentially a coin flip, giving us a legitimate path to an outright upset. The other is a much bigger underdog where the value comes from the number itself- we do not need the upset, only a competitive enough performance to stay inside the spread.
That gives us two very different ways to attack the board.
Fresno State +2.5 vs. Washington State
Fresno State fits the profile of the live dog- an underdog with a legitimate chance to win the game outright.
The Bulldogs opened the season with an ugly 39-0 loss to USC, but they have responded by winning three straight games by a combined score of 113-37. Just as importantly, Fresno State has not committed a turnover during that three-game winning streak. That ball security becomes especially important against Washington State.
The Cougars have yet to defeat an FBS opponent and have been outscored by 51 points in those three games. Turnovers have also been a consistent problem, with Washington State averaging roughly two giveaways per game against FBS competition. Quarterback Caden Pinnick has produced seven turnover-worthy plays, while Fresno quarterback Jayden Mandal has settled in nicely since Week 1. Mandal has six touchdown passes against just one interception and only one turnover-worthy play since the USC loss.
Fresno has also developed a productive running game behind Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson, both averaging more than five yards per carry against Group of Six competition. Washington State’s offensive struggles make the matchup even more appealing. The Cougars rank near the bottom of the country in several offensive efficiency categories and sit 133rd nationally in third-down conversion rate. They have generated only 17 non-garbage-time scoring opportunities and are averaging fewer than 3.25 points on those possessions.
The JTSS projection has this game separated by less than a point, with Washington State projected to win 23.4-22.9 and Fresno State carrying a 49.0% win probability. That makes the current market movement especially noteworthy. Fresno State opened around +2.5, but the number has already begun dropping. With most books moving to +1.5, shop around.
In a game that projects this closely, every half-point matters.
The Play: Fresno State +2.5
Middle Tennessee +18.5 at Kansas
Middle Tennessee is a very different type of underdog.
The Blue Raiders are not being selected because they are expected to win outright. This is about whether Kansas deserves to be laying nearly three touchdowns.
Middle Tennessee enters at 2-2 after opening the season with a 38-14 win over Murray State, losing 28-26 at Marshall, and then beating Nevada 27-20. The Blue Raiders dropped last week’s game against Jacksonville State 23-13, but quarterback Roman Gagliano still completed 18 of 28 passes for 216 yards and two touchdowns, while Antonio Martin rushed for 106 yards on 17 carries. The concern is clearly the defense. Jacksonville State piled up 517 total yards, including 276 on the ground, so Kansas should be able to move the football.
But laying 18.5 points requires more than simply being the better team. Kansas enters at 1-2 following losses to Missouri and Arizona State. The Jayhawks moved the ball reasonably well against Arizona State, producing 414 yards and 22 first downs, but three turnovers and a 6-of-16 performance on third down prevented them from turning that production into points. Kansas has also been extremely slow out of the gate, ranking 129th nationally in first-quarter scoring at just 2.0 points per game.
That matters with a spread this large. A favorite laying nearly three touchdowns needs separation, and consistently slow starts reduce the margin for error. The JTSS projection has Kansas winning approximately 34.7-17.1, a projected margin of 17.6 points. The sportsbook is asking Kansas to cover 18.5. Middle Tennessee has also performed better against the market so far, entering this matchup 3-1 against the spread.
This is the kind of game where Kansas can control possession, win comfortably, and still fail to cover. A 31-17 or 34-20 final would be perfectly acceptable for anyone holding a Middle Tennessee ticket.
The Play: Middle Tennessee +18.5
Two Different Dogs, Two Different Paths
Fresno State is the underdog with the stronger outright-win case. The market calls Washington State the favorite, but the matchup and projection suggest something much closer to a toss-up. Middle Tennessee does not need that same upset potential. The Blue Raiders simply need enough offense and resistance to keep Kansas from creating a three-touchdown margin. That is the key difference between the two Week 5 selections: one dog can win the game; the other only needs to stay inside the number.
All model projection data sourced from JustTheStatsSports.com.
Odds are subject to change and were current at the time of posting. Please bet responsibly.
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