The Phillies were dealt a huge blow last week when lefty Jesus Luzardo was placed on the injured list. Luzardo had become one of the most reliable starters not just for Philly, but in baseball overall. Since June 1, Luzardo had been top-10 or better in numerous important stats, including:
- ERA: 2.01 (first)
- FIP: 2.78 (third)
- Batting average against: .179 (third)
- K%: 32.4 (tied-third)
- fWAR: 3.5 (tied-second)
Luzardo and the Phillies are optimistic he can return for the postseason. However, his innings will need to be filled by someone in the meantime. With these games still being consequential to the team’s playoff seeding, how does Luzardo’s injury impact them now? What happens to his usage in the postseason, or if he needs to miss any time then?
Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter Must Stay Hot
The Phillies’ rotation has been a strength all season. With how Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter have pitched in recent months, their strongest asset has gotten deeper.
Nola, who stands among some of the team’s best pitchers in franchise history, struggled badly for much of the year. Entering July, he had put up a 6.04 ERA, allowing 19 home runs in just 85 innings. Since July 1, Nola has put up production that fits in with some of the best days of his career:
- 2.92 ERA
- 42.0 GB%
- .231 AVG
- 24.3 K%
- 8.6 BB%
He’s been even better in his last eight starts, posting a 1.86 ERA in that time. During this stretch, Nola has not allowed more than two runs in a game. In his most recent start, he pitched seven scoreless innings against the Mets in a 3-0 Phillies victory. If Luzardo is unable to start at any point in the playoffs, Nola will likely step in his place.
Painter, meanwhile, was a former top-10 prospect who struggled to adjust to his first taste of big-league action. After posting a 7.06 ERA to start his MLB career, Painter was optioned to Triple-A to reset. But when he got a second chance against the Orioles on July 31, he ran with it.
It started with six innings of two-run ball that game. Since that start, Painter has continued to grow and impress, with a 3.88 ERA in ten starts. He’s sharpened his control (8.7 BB%) and shown better confidence in his stuff, including a greatly improved changeup. He’ll likely move to the bullpen in the postseason, but he’s now an important part of the Phillies’ plans.
Sanchez-Wheeler Duo Need to Remain Elite
The Phillies’ elite rotation has been headlined by Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler. Both have had incredible seasons and will need to keep it up to put air beneath the team’s wings.
Sanchez dominated early in the year, putting together a 50.2 scoreless innings streak. And while his 3.89 ERA since June 1 seems more pedestrian than dominant, a couple of ugly outings inflated that mark. That included a nine-run meltdown against the Royals on July 6, where an errant throw from Trea Turner sparked a six-run rally.
Still, he’s been uneven at times. Sanchez dominated August with a 1.72 ERA over six starts, allowing more than two runs just once. But he opened September by allowing 14 runs in his first three starts, striking out just 13 batters in that time. His last outing went much better (6.1 innings, two runs, six strikeouts), and is what the Phillies need from him.
Wheeler has been mostly unfazed by the thoracic outlet syndrome that forced him to miss the last month of 2025, and some of this April. His overall numbers (2.99 ERA, 29.5 K%, 3.5 fWAR) reflect the dominance he continues to show. Just like Sanchez, though, Wheeler’s season has shown flashes of uncertainty.
So far, Wheeler has a 0.90 ERA in three September starts. In 20 innings, he’s struck out 23 and walked only five. In August, however, he endured a disastrous month. The usually steady Wheeler put up a 6.26 ERA, showing uncharacteristic control issues (14.1 BB%). The tipping point was an eight-run, four-homer blowup against Seattle on August 24. For the Phillies to have success this fall, they’ll need to see more of the September Wheeler who’s put those struggles behind him.
What About the Postseason?
The Phillies are remaining hopeful that Luzardo will be ready in time for the playoffs. Before the team’s game on September 20, Luzardo was out in the field playing catch. That’s a big step toward his return, but he’ll still need to throw a bullpen before he comes back. His earliest return date is September 27, the final game of the regular season, and there’s no guarantee he’d pitch in that game.
In a perfect world, Luzardo will be ready to start right away when the postseason begins. A trio of Sanchez-Wheeler-Luzardo makes for an enviable combo in any playoff series. But if he isn’t ready to start, he’ll be destined for a bullpen role. That’ll likely force Nola into a start, who has postseason experience from the team’s prior runs. Painter is expected to be in the bullpen, but could then take on a bulk role to cover more innings.
Whatever role Luzardo plays in the postseason, he’ll be vital to the team’s push for a third World Series title. He shined in the playoffs for them last year (2.35 ERA, 7.2 innings) and has shown he can take his game to an even higher level.
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