The American League Cy Young race is over. In his last start, Cam Schlittler twirled a six-inning, one-hit, eight-strikeout gem against the Mets. In fact, ESPN’s award tracker no longer has odds for the race.
With the Yankees also clinching a playoff berth with their win Monday night, there’s not much left at stake in New York’s regular season. Except for Schlittler’s potential run at being the first pitcher to win MVP since 2014.
Schlittler has two starts remaining this year. Barring Aaron Boone toying with the rotation to line them up for the postseason, he’s scheduled to get the ball for game two in Arizona on Sept. 19 and game four against the Rays on Sept. 24.
The Statistical Case
There’s a long list of stats you can cite to put Schlittler’s dominance this season in context. There are a few worth highlighting.
Schlittler’s ERA is currently an AL-best 1.95. That’s the lowest ERA of any qualified Yankees starter since Ron Guidry (1.74)in 1978. The next most recent sub-two ERA in Yankee history is 1943 Spud Chandler (1.64). He also has a marginally better ERA than Jacob Misiorowski, the NL frontrunner for Cy Young.
While they both display a 1.95 ERA, the formula for ERA actually allows for the
Schlittler also has a better ERA+ than Clayton Kershaw in 2014.
ERA+ adjusts to the league, wherein league average is always 100. That means Schlittler has been 116% better than league average, while Kershaw was “only” 97% better. Schlittler has also done this in 31 starts, while Kershaw has done it in only 27.
Finally, he currently leads the American League in Wins Above Replacement. Yordan Alvarez (5.8), the odds-on favorite, Junior Caminero (5.3), the home run leader, and Bobby Witt Jr. (6.3) all trail Schlittler’s mark of 7.1. In an award measuring value, Schlittler has statistically impacted his team the most.
The last time a pitcher won MVP was Kershaw in 2014. Spud Chandler also won in 1943, and Guidry finished second in 1978.
The Comparative Case
The American League MVP race at this point is down to five names. Schlittler, Alvarez, Caminero, Witt Jr. and rookie sensation Kevin McGonigle.
Players like Ben Rice and Dillon Dingler were in the thick of the race, but recently played themselves out with .641 and .518 OPS in August, respectively.
Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez is still the favorite, per ESPN. He currently leads baseball in on-base percentage (.427) and slugging percentage (.589), and the American League in batting average (.310). Since his debut in 2019, he has done nothing but mash at the plate, with 2026 his best and healthiest season yet.
It’s hard enough for a primary DH to win MVP. Of course, Ohtani’s done it four of the last five years, but Alvarez isn’t stealing 50 bases or throwing 100 innings. In fact, Baseball Savant ranks Alvarez as one of the slowest and worst-valued baserunners in the league.
He’s also been abysmal down the stretch. Over the last calendar month (Aug. 15 – Sept. 15) he’s slashed just .238/.375/.393 with two homers and eight RBI. He was once poised to run away with the triple crown, and now it looks like a long shot.
The triple crown is Alvarez’s best bet. If he can turn around these remaining 12 games and reclaim the home run and RBI title, his case is as good as gold. As it stands, Alvarez and Rice are tied for second with 38 home runs to Caminero’s 40. Pete Alonso leads the way with 100 runs driven in, with Alvarez (96) and Caminero (95) close behind.
Junior Caminero
Caminero has been phenomenal in just his 22-year-old season. He’s one of the league’s premier sluggers, hitting 40 homers in 2025 and 2026. He’s a cornerstone on the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.
The main argument against Caminero mirrors Alvarez’s: his game is very one-dimensional. While his hitting prowess is undeniable, he is a negative asset on the base paths and at third base. Unlike Alvarez, he hasn’t cooled off in the final weeks of summer, but at no point this season has he had a narrative driving his MVP case home.
Caminero would surely be a worthy winner. He is a three-true-outcome generator; his batting average sits at a respectable .279.
Bobby Witt Jr.
Then there’s Bobby Witt Jr. He finished second in voting in 2024 and fourth in 2025. He’s perhaps the most well-rounded five -tool player in the league. His game really has no weakness.
2026 could be classified as a “down-year” for him, with “only” a .280 batting average and 18 home runs. He missed about two weeks toward the end of July, so his counting stats aren’t in their usual spot. He doesn’t lead the league in batting, stolen bases, or hits as he has in years past.
He’ll undoubtedly finish towards the top of the ballot, but it’s hard to imagine voters choosing 2026 to reward him. His fifth-place Royals also won’t help his case, especially against the Yankees, Rays and Astros, all currently in a playoff position.
Kevin McGonigle
McGonigle’s rookie season has been excellent. He has split time at shortstop and third base for the Tigers. His offensive profile fits a seasoned veteran. An incredibly balanced slash line of .273/.373/.425 with a nearly even ratio of strikeouts (89) to walks (88). His 6.6 WAR leads position players, but an MLB rookie has only won MVP twice, and not since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001.
It’s hard to imagine a world where McGonigle finds his way atop the voting. Like Witt, he does not lead in any statistical category. His first season in the big leagues has been great, and it’s not far-fetched to say he will take home the award one day, but he will probably finish fifth or sixth in 2026.
Case Closed?
While Aaron Boone endorses his ace as the MVP, teammate and three-time MVP Aaron Judge doesn’t.
“They’ve got a Cy Young Award for a reason, best pitcher in the game. He’s got my vote, definitely, for the Cy Young,” Judge said.
Ultimately, the final two weeks of the season carry a lot of weight. If Yordan Alvarez can turn his bat back on and secure the triple crown, Schlittler stands no chance. If he stays cool and Schlittler has two strong outings left in him, then it might be time to see baseball’s next MVP pitcher.
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