The New York Yankees just defeated the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card round, two games to none. They dominated the series, outscoring Boston 18-2 over the two games. Now, they will face the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Division Series. Tampa Bay had an impressive regular season, finishing with a 98-64 record and winning the AL East. They clinched the division title for the first time since 2021.
With the series set to begin, here is a position-by-position breakdown of the Yankees and Rays to determine which team has the edge at each spot.
Catcher: Austin Wells vs. Liam Hicks
The catcher position was one of the weakest spots in the Yankees’ lineup this season. Austin Wells struggled mightily in the regular season. He hit just .186 with a.624 OPS in 122 games. He did perform well in the Wild Card series, though. Wells had three hits in six at-bats and drove in four runs. His defense has also been very strong. Wells ranks in the 92nd percentile in blocks above average and the 95th percentile in framing, according to Baseball Savant. New York is hoping he can keep this momentum going into the Division Series.
Tampa Bay acquired Liam Hicks from the Marlins at the trade deadline. Hicks is one of the better offensive catchers in the league. In the regular season, he hit.284 with 18 home runs, 82 RBIs, and an .801 OPS. He is above average defensively in terms of framing and preventing stolen bases. Hicks hits cleanup for the Rays, so he has plenty of opportunities with runners on base.
Wells has the advantage defensively, but Hicks’ offensive production gives Tampa Bay the edge at catcher.
Advantage: Rays
First Base: Luis Garcia Jr. vs. Jonathan Aranda
Looking to bolster their lineup, the Yankees traded for first baseman Luis Garcia Jr. Garcia had a big home run in Game 2 of the Wild Card to give New York a 1-0 lead. He adds more left-handed power to this offense. Garcia hit 30 home runs and drove in 92 runs during the regular season. With Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton missing time, Garcia has provided some much-needed stability to the lineup.
Jonathan Aranda was an All-Star in 2025 and had another strong season this year. He hit .274 with 22 home runs, 92 RBIs, and a .792 OPS. Aranda ranked as one of the top first basemen in the American League in Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Both players are productive hitters, but Aranda has put together two straight seasons of high-level offensive production, giving him the edge at first base.
Advantage: Rays
Second Base: Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs. Richie Palacios
This season, Jazz Chisholm’s goal was to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases. Unfortunately, he fell well short of those marks. Chisholm hit just 19 home runs and 41 stolen bases. It wasn’t the year he was hoping for as he enters free agency in 2027. Chisholm still impacts the game with his baserunning, speed, and defense. He ranked in the 97th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA)according to Baseball Savant.
Richie Palacios didn’t have a great season either for Tampa Bay. In 124 games, he hit .235 with a .330 OBP and .704 OPS. Defensively, he doesn’t make up for it. Palacios ranked in the sixth percentile on Baseball Savant with -8 Outs Above Average. Jazz’s combination of power, speed, and defense gives him the clear advantage.
Advantage: Yankees
Shortstop: George Lombard Jr. vs. Taylor Walls
With the struggles of Anthony Volpe, the Yankees called up their top prospect, George Lombard Jr., to take over at shortstop. Lombard showed flashes in his first major league stint. In 42 games, he hit seven home runs and drove in 22 runs. He even showed above-average fielding ability with eight Defensive Runs Saved in his first 100 innings.
Taylor Walls is one of the best defensive shortstops in the league. He was a Gold Glove finalist in 2025 with 18 Defensive Runs Saved. On the other hand, his offense leaves a lot to be desired. Walls hit .222 with just two home runs and a .607 OPS; his career batting average is just .200. Lombard isn’t at Walls’ level defensively, but his offensive potential is much higher.
Advantage: Yankees
Third Base: Ryan McMahon vs. Junior Caminero
Ryan McMahon was acquired at the 2025 trade deadline to shore up the Yankees’ infield defense. In 2025, he posted 10 defensive runs saved and seven outs above average. This year, those numbers have regressed. McMahon had –3 defensive runs saved and just 1 Outs Above Average during the regular season. His offense doesn’t make up for it. McMahon hit just .213 with a .279 OBP and .635 OPS.
Junior Caminero has become one of the best young players in baseball. He hit 42 home runs during the regular season, tied for the second-most in the American League. Caminero also finished third in the AL in RBIs and fourth in OPS. He was ninth in AL MVP voting in 2025 and could finish much higher than that this year.
Advantage: Rays
Outfield
Aaron Judge could be back for this series. If he isn’t, New York would roll with Cody Bellinger in left field, Trent Grisham in center, and rookie Spencer Jones in right. Grisham missed time this season with a hamstring injury and wasn’t the same player defensively. He had -6 OAA and -8 Defensive Runs Saved. After hitting 34 home runs in 2025, Grisham hit just 18 this year.
Bellinger is by far the Yankees’ best defensive outfielder. He was tied for third amongst all outfielders with 20 Defensive Runs Saved. Bellinger’s lefty power with the short porch at Yankee Stadium makes him an offensive threat. His three-run home run in Game 2 put the game out of reach for the Red Sox. Spencer Jones is another power hitting lefty who runs the bases well and can play all three outfield spots.
For the Rays, they have Chandler Simpson in left, Cedric Mullins in center, and Victor Mesa Jr. in right. Simpson is one of the fastest players in the league, stealing 46 bases during the regular season. Also, he had just a 7.8% strikeout rate, putting him in the 100th percentile of the league. New York will need to do everything they can to keep him off the bases.
Mesa Jr. is another promising young player for Tampa Bay. He played 16 games in 2025 but got more of an opportunity this year. In 79 games, Mesa Jr. hit 14 home runs and had an .825 OPS. Additionally, the Rays outfield had the fourth most Defensive Runs Saved in the entire league. Assuming Judge is still sidelined, the Rays outfield takes this matchup.
Advantage: Rays
Designated Hitter: Ben Rice vs. Yandy Diaz
With Aaron Judge missing months of action, Ben Rice became the Yankees’ best hitter this season. He hit 41 home runs and drove in 97 runs, both ranking fourth in the American League. He could find himself in the AL MVP conversation with the year he had. Rice has already carried that success over to the postseason. In Game 1 against Boston, he hit two home runs, including a grand slam, and drove in six of New York’s nine runs.
Yandy Diaz is also a great hitter. He had a career high in hits this season with 180, along with 22 home runs and 85 RBIs. Diaz historically performs well against the Yankees in his career. In 106 games against New York, Diaz has a .272 batting average with 13 home runs and 57 RBIs. The Yankees pitchers will need to be careful with him and not give him too many hittable pitches. Both are great hitters, but Rice’s MVP caliber season gives him the edge.
Advantage: Yankees
Starting Pitching
The Yankees starting staff had the lowest ERA in the entire league at 3.30. They also had the second most strikeouts. The rotation is led by Cam Schlittler, who had a stellar 1.95 ERA in the regular season, the best in the American League. He also was tied for second in the AL with 239 strikeouts in 193 innings. Schlittler continued his dominance against Boston in the Wild Card, striking out 10 hitters in six and a third innings.
The rest of New York’s rotation includes Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodon. In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, Cole was solid, posting a 3.61 ERA in 22 starts. Fried and Rodon also battled injuries throughout the season, but still posted above average numbers. Fried had a 2.80 ERA in 20 starts, while Rodon posted a 2.67 ERA in 16 starts.
The Rays also have a great starting rotation, ranking third in baseball in ERA as a staff. However, their starters ranked just 19th in strikeouts. Tampa Bay will be without lefty starter Shane McClanahan for this series, as he is dealing with a forearm injury. Two of their starters, Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez, ranked among the top ten in the American League in ERA.
Additionally, Tampa acquired Freddy Peralta at the trade deadline. In his ten starts with the Rays, Peralta went 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA.This is a close matchup, but New York’s combination of depth, strikeout ability, and the health of its rotation gives the Yankees the slight advantage.
Advantage: Yankees
Bullpen
Along with one of the best starting rotations, the Yankees also had one of the leagues best bullpens. They ranked second in bullpen ERA, but just 24th in strikeouts. The back-end is anchored by Paul Blackburn, Brent Headrick, and close David Bednar. Bednar had a strong 2026 season with 35 saves and a 2.47 ERA. Blackburn and Headrick also had career years, ERAs of 1.69 and 2.18, respectively. Headrick was a workhorse for the Yankees, appearing in 81 regular season games.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranked more in the middle of the pack. They ranked 14th in ERA and 15th in strikeouts. Their closer, Bryan Baker, led the majors with 41 saves and had a remarkable 1.44 ERA. However, the Rays do have some injuries in their bullpen. Tyler Wells and Garrett Cleavinger are currently on the injured list. If they don’t return, Tampa Bay’s bullpen depth will be tested.
The Yankees have the clear advantage when it comes to bullpen depth and overall performance. However, they will need more strikeouts from this group against a Rays lineup that struck out the fewest times in the regular season. If New York’s relievers can continue to limit damage and avoid giving Tampa Bay extra opportunities, the Yankees should have the edge late in games.
Advantage: Yankees
Final Score: Yankees 5, Rays 4
Final Take
The Yankees have a slight advantage over the Rays heading into the ALDS. Tampa Bay has a deeper lineup at several positions, but New York’s starting rotation and bullpen give them an edge on the pitching side. The Yankees also have more postseason experience, which could be important in a series where the margins are expected to be small.
This should be a competitive series between two of the best teams in the American League. The Rays won 98 games and took the AL East, so New York will have to play its best baseball to advance. However, with their pitching staff and an offense that showed plenty of firepower against Boston, the Yankees have enough to win a close series and advance to the ALCS.
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