The Washington Wizards bet on Bilal Coulibaly the day they drafted him.
They traded up for the seventh-overall pick, handing the Indiana Pacers the eighth pick in return. With the selection, Washington chose French 18-year-old Bilal Coulibaly of the Metropolitans 92.
In his rookie year, the Wizards were quickly getting the return on their investment. Averaging 8.4 points and nearly two combined steals and blocks per game, the first-year lottery pick was producing on both ends of the hardwood.
But now, two years removed from his debut season, Coulibaly is still exhibiting the same *decent* production.
Coulibaly is still productive. He’s still disruptive. But he hasn’t seemed to make the substantial leap the District bet he would.
Has Bilal Coulibaly Plateaued?
Single-digit draft picks carry weight and expectations. In Washington’s case, they carry hope too.
When the Wizards selected Coulibaly, they were pivoting toward a youth movement. Done with barely keeping their head above water, Washington decided to fully submerge and develop rugrats like Coulibaly.
Ideally, rookies grow in this environment. Coulibaly did, but not as dramatically as many expected.
With the ball in his hands, things haven’t gone the Frenchman’s way this year. He’s shooting 40.6% from the floor and 27.2% from three-point range. Those are drops of 2.9 and 7.4 percentage points from his rookie campaign.
The bright and beaming concern is the perimeter shooting. Within the arc, he’s shooting 49.2%, around his career average. But his outside shot hitting this slope stunts his growth, and is the opposite of what one of the worst shooting teams in the league needs.
The Wizards really chose to take on the Coulibaly project because of his defensive upside. This season, his 7-foot-2 wingspan has done him well, recording 2.5 combined steals and blocks per contest. He’s undeniably displayed the lockdown abilities Washington saw flashes of in France. And with his eye for the ball and sneaky leaping ability, he’s turned assignments into matchup nightmares.
So, whether his growth has truly flattened is unclear. In just his third year, it’s too early to attach labels.
But, offensively, the acceleration isn’t there. Defensively, however, he’s pushing the speedometer to its limits.
What Must Come Next?
Countless players in the league hit offensive roadblocks. The easy answer for growth is to “score more.”
But Coulibaly doesn’t need to add ten points per night to demonstrate progress. He needs to polish what he has, not add to it. The tools are there. What comes next is sharpening them.
He tallies 1.4 turnovers per game, a manageable number, but a tighter handle would take him a long way. Improved control would lead to more aggressive drives and collapse the outside for others.
One thing Coulibaly isn’t short of is physical gifts. His speed, when utilized, has made for an extensive poster highlight reel. A more pronounced downhill-mentality would add to it.
Becoming a league-average distance shooter gives him options. If he were able to achieve that status, Coulibaly would force opponents to close out on him, where he could then punish them or choose to let it fly confidently.
If defenders know they can leave him, he’ll stay limited. If that changes, so does his ceiling.
Recently, he has shown just how much efficiency benefits him.
Though the leap doesn’t require skill alone. It requires a mentality shift.
At times, Coulibaly still plays like a complementary piece. The real divider necessitates looking for contact, hunting mismatches, and attacking gaps.
Washington doesn’t need him to be the leading scorer. They need a wing with conviction.
And after hauling in two All-Stars in Trae Young and Anthony Davis, the Wizards are expected to be competitive next year.
Coulibaly could play meaningful basketball for the first time in the NBA at that point. Maybe this change in direction could aid him in climbing the ladder. Winning games accelerates growth in a way losing can’t.
But for now, the leap everyone is looking for has to come from playing with intention.
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