The entire NBA community shook like an earthquake late Saturday night. Total shock and awe feels like the best way to describe what will go down as one of the most shocking superstar deals… possibly ever in league history.
The details: Luka Dončić from the Dallas Mavericks is heading to L.A. The Lakers are sending out Anthony Davis. The entire trade included three teams, two top-10 players, six total players and three picks. Again, this is an absolute stunner, first reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania.
Among NBA circles and fans, much will be made about this deal for quite some time. For this piece, the focus will be on Dončić and where the Lakers go from here.
Specifically, why L.A. handily won this trade… and it’s not even close.
The claim centers on two main arguments that are pretty hard to dispute:
Dončić: floor and ceiling raiser
There’s no question Dončić remains the most notable prize in this deal, and for good reason.
To date, here is what Luka’s resume looks like:
- Career averages: 28.6 PPG, 8.7 RPG and 8.3 APG
- Career averages (playoffs): 30.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 8.1 APG
- x5 All-Star (2020-24)
- x5 top-10 in MVP voting
- x3 top-five in MVP voting
- x5 All-NBA First Team (2020-24)
- Best player on a Finals team (Dallas, 2024)
The scary part: this year only marks Dončić’s age-25 (!) season.
To put that in context, these six players ended up with exactly five All-NBA first team nods: Jason Kidd, Dwight Howard, Rick Barry, George Gervin and Julius Erving. Luka already slides in the top-25 all-time for first-team All-NBA appearances.
For the Lakers, this is about both the present and future. Dončić already boasts an accomplished career in what is now his seventh in the league. He just became the new cornerstone in L.A. for the next decade-plus.
The Lakers, as of Sunday morning, sit with a 28-19 record after this blockbuster move to get Dončić. L.A. finds itself as the 5th seed in the Western Conference playoff picture, two games ahead of Play-In Tournament territory.
In the now, Dončić next to LeBron James will be one of the most interesting superstar pairings ever.
That being said, this move is about the future… leading to the other core reason the Lakers easily came out on top of this deal:
Selling high on AD
Superstars typically get dealt with a high quantity of assets. A combination of young players, picks and cap flexibility. It’s rare to see one top-five to top-10 player get traded for another.
Wisely, L.A. made the most of what it could with Anthony Davis. Yet again, this deal is all about the future outlook. Specifically, one without James.
Like Luka, AD boasts an impressive resume of his own:
- x10 All-Star
- x5 All-NBA nods (x1 first team and x1 second team)
- x5 All-Defensive First Team
- x4 top-10 MVP voting
- x2 top-five MVP voting
- Second-best player on a championship team (L.A., 2020)
The Lakers (correctly) sold high while they could on AD. 2024-25 marks his age-31 season. He played 76 games last year, but previously suited up for just 36, 40 and 56 in the three seasons before that. The numbers remain shockingly good (25.7 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.3 SPG and 2.1 BPG in 2024-25), but the prime window remains much smaller compared to Dončić.
The other key: the rest of the pieces moved in the deal.
Only having to give up just a 2029 first-round pick and Max Christie is crucial for the Lakers. L.A. will still have assets to either use to build around Dončić in the long-term or ship out to put present-day pieces around him.
The value of that pick without a doubt also gets lower with Dončić in the fold. Three years from now is hard to predict, but Luka won’t even be in his thirties by the time that pick comes around.
The elephant in the room
The key question (outside what was Dallas thinking here?) is why L.A. said yes when it didn’t necessarily have to.
For that, there are two answers.
First, Dončić provides clear clarity on the Lakers going forward post-LeBron. Without this deal, it would’ve been possibly a mid-thirties AD running the show. Or, L.A. would trade Davis in this universe and start fresh.
In this trade, L.A. gets the best of both worlds: cashing in on Davis now, while not having to blow it up and start totally anew.
Second, and most importantly, the Lakers clearly saw a more bleak outlook with Davis as the centerpiece. Still a phenomenal player of course… but just a hair or two shy of being that franchise guy.
The Lakers, as they always do over the course of NBA history, once again pull a shocker and walk away with the most upside.
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