With an 11-game lead, the Oklahoma City Thunder will likely be the first seed in the Western Conference.
In a stacked West, even the first round can be a dogfight. OKC will play the second winner of the Play-In Tournament, who would likely be one of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings, or Dallas Mavericks.
The Golden State Warriors will also be included because of their nearly identical record with the Timberwolves.
How would OKC match up against these teams, and who should they be the most scared of in the first round?
Minnesota Timberwolves
After the Thunder’s historic 25-point collapse, OKC and Minnesota finished with a matchup record of 2-2. Both teams have had many injuries throughout those four games, so it is hard to be sure what a seven-game playoff series would look like.
One thing is clear— the Timberwolves do not have an answer for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA averaged 35.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 1.8 steals against Minnesota this season, shooting 51.1% overall and 55.6% from three.
OKC did a great job containing Anthony Edwards this year, as he scored just 22.3 points per game, on 36.4% shooting from the field and 31.6% from three.
With Karl-Anthony Towns gone, OKC has a size advantage against Minnesota. Rudy Gobert is not a perimeter threat, so Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein can roam the court on defense when he is on the floor.
Minnesota’s backup center, Naz Reid, dominated the Thunder this year, scoring 22.5 points and grabbing 11 rebounds per game.
Golden State Warriors
Having a 1-2 record against Golden State, there is much to be intrigued by in this matchup. One of the losses includes SGA dropping 51 points.
The addition of Jimmy Butler leaves even more questions. The Warriors are 12-1 with Butler in the lineup.
Stephen Curry has given OKC nightmares for over a decade with no sign of stopping. Curry has averaged 28.5 points, shooting 52.2% from three in two games against OKC this year. Curry did not play in the Thunder’s only win in the series.
OKC’s size advantage is key in this hypothetical series. Holmgren and Hartenstein will dominate the glass and create open lanes for Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams to get to the rim.
Despite all the phenomenal defenders on the Thunder, there will never be an answer for Curry. Having to put a body on Butler too, these games could end up being shootouts.
Los Angeles Clippers
OKC has dominated the Clippers this year, with a 3-0 record and an average point differential of +11.7. However, they have two NBA legends in James Harden and Kawhi Leonard.
Leonard has been one of the most injury-plagued players ever but also one of the scariest players in the playoffs. Harden has consistently been a top player in the league, changing his playstyle whenever necessary.
A healthy Leonard is a perfect answer to guard SGA or Williams. However, LA’s primary guard defender Kris Dunn is not the answer to guard SGA. Since 2023, SGA has averaged 31.1 points/per 75 possessions, with 66.3% true shooting in matchups against Dunn.
Sacramento Kings
The Thunder have pummeled the Kings this year, winning 130-109 and 144-110 against them.
The Kings have since revamped their roster, adding Zach LaVine to the squad. The Thunder will face the new-look Kings on Mar. 25, which will give a clearer view on how the teams match up.
Domantas Sabonis is a weaker interior defender, so Sacramento will have no answer for Gilgeous-Alexander’s driving ability.
Dallas Mavericks
After the league-altering Luka Doncic trade, the Mavericks are a shell of what they once were. Kyrie Irving is out, and Anthony Davis is potentially done for the year. Despite OKC’s 1-3 record against Dallas this year, the Mavs are not the team they once were.
They might even miss the playoffs.
Who is the Scariest?
The Golden State Warriors would be the scariest team for OKC to play in round one. The duo of Curry and Butler leaves more problems for OKC compared to the other potential first-round matchups.
The Thunder are the favorites in this matchup, but the Warriors are also the most likely team to pull off one of the biggest playoff upsets in NBA history.
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