The Phillies have been plagued this season by lackluster production from their righty bats. As a whole, J.T. Realmuto (.648 OPS), Trea Turner (.684) and Alec Bohm (.657) have provided unsatisfactory offensive results.
While Turner’s defense has been much maligned this season, he’s turned his production around at the plate. Since June 15, Turner has posted an .886 OPS, picking up seven home runs and seven doubles. Realmuto has quietly been performing better recently as well, with an .818 OPS in July. And early-season trade acquisition Derek Hill has provided more value than expected, already worth 1.5 bWAR as a Phillie.
That leaves Alec Bohm out of the picture. While his numbers aren’t as strong as his other right-handed teammates, there’s strong evidence that a huge hot streak is inbound.
Alec Bohm Is Hitting the Ball Harder
Bohm’s numbers since June are lackluster, slashing just .244/.298/.421 in 42 games. Counting just July, Bohm is hitting .239/.311/.478, a little above league average by the measure of wRC+ (114). He avoids strikeouts well (16.9 K% since June) but doesn’t walk much either (5.1 BB%). Most importantly, he’s grounding out 50.4% of the time, limiting the amount of impact his swings can have.
That’s significant, as his swings have had a relatively big amount of impact by measure of his batted ball statistics. During July, Bohm has been hitting the ball harder than he has all season:
- HardHit%- 52.8% (July), 42.5% (season)
- Barrel%- 11.3% (July), 5.5% (season)
- Average Exit Velocity- 94.1 MPH (July), 90.6 (season)
- Expected Slugging%- .490 (July), .378 (season)
Out of 196 batters with at least 50 plate appearances in July, Bohm ranks top 30 or better in most of these statistics:
- HardHit%- 21st
- Average Exit Velocity- 12th
- Expected Slugging%- 29th
While his barrel rate falls out of the top 50, he still ranks 56th, better than 140 other batters. Bohm’s batted ball data finds him in very good company. He’s made improvements in keeping the ball off the ground, which has also been crucial to his added impact.
What’s also important to note is that Bohm has been getting slightly unlucky in this stretch as well. While he’s put up an above-average slash line by wRC+ this month, he’s done so with just a .245 BABIP. That mark falls well under the league-average .290 BABIP batters have had this month.
Who Does Bohm Compare Best To?
While it’s risky to make generalizations based on stats in a small sample, Bohm’s elite batted ball metrics this month put him in equally elite company.
By HardHit%, Bohm’s 52.8% mark puts him just ahead of Willson Contreras (51.4%). Contreras has played an important role in fueling the Red Sox’s rampant turnaround this month. The first baseman is slashing a ridiculous .381/.490/.762 in July. His numbers fall just behind Yordan Alvarez for the MLB lead in OBP, SLG, and OPS this month.
His elite exit velocity this month sees him hitting similarly to Giants’ rookie Bryce Eldridge (94.2). Though he is strikeout-prone, Eldridge has still been an above-average hitter this month. He’s slugged .460 and offset his lofty 34.7 K% with a solid 12.5% walk rate. That’s allowed him to be better than average this month by wRC+ (121).
Even his relatively lacking 11.3 Barrel% compares well with other strong performers, notably Braves’ catcher Drake Baldwin (11.9%). Baldwin has been potent in July, with an OPS just over 1.000 and a wRC+ nearly double the league average of 100 (183).
These comparisons do not necessarily mean that Bohm should be hitting like any of these players. Each has different batted ball profiles influencing their performances, as well as differing park factors for where they’ve played. However, it helps serve some context to who his batted ball data shows he has been similar to this month.
Is This the Norm For Bohm Now?
Bohm’s stronger play in July is encouraging, but should be put in context with his overall numbers. Bohm has hit the ball hard on average this year, with a 74th percentile exit velocity.
In spite of this, Bohm’s type of contact has been less than ideal generally. Barrel% and launch angle sweet spot (LA Sweet-Spot%) are similar stats that help quantify contact quality. Both stats are ones that Bohm has been well below-average in this year. Bohm is under the 40th percentile in both of these metrics, nullifying much of the actual impact he has been able to provide.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s vastly overperforming either. Bohm had a similar hot streak during the month of May with worse batted ball metrics too.
- May: 47.6 HardHit%, 6.0 Barrel%, 92 MPH Average Exit Velocity
- July: 52.8 HardHit%, 11.3 Barrel%, 94.1 MPH Average Exit Velocity
During that month, Bohm hit .277/.333/.479, good for a 121 wRC+. Despite lesser batter ball data, Bohm’s type of contact was significantly better. Bohm had a closer to average 44.0 GB% and a better 38.1 FB%, letting him make the most of his quality swings.
Alec Bohm is close to figuring out his swing and getting hot. If he can, Bohm, alongside a rejuvenated Trea Turner, could help this lineup hit its stride for the final stretch.
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