By Mark Wallis, Co-Host of Weekday Wagers and CEO of JustTheStatsSports.com
Walkin’ The Dogs went 1-1 last week and Week 3 brings a different type of card.
There are no massive spreads to hide behind this week. Instead, the focus is on three short underdogs in games the JustTheStatsSports model sees as essentially toss-ups. In each case, the market has installed a favorite, but the gap between the two teams is much smaller than the designation might suggest.
That creates exactly the type of situation this segment is designed to find: take the points with a team that has a legitimate chance to win the game outright.
James Madison +2.5 at San Diego State
James Madison may be the strongest combination of model projection and available spread on this week’s board.
San Diego State is laying 2.5 points at home, but the JTSS model projects the Aztecs to win by only 1.1 points, 23.9-22.8. James Madison carries a 47.4% projected win probability, compared with 52.6% for San Diego State.
That distinction matters.
This isn’t a matchup where the model believes San Diego State is clearly superior and we’re simply hoping James Madison can stay close. The projection sees two teams separated by little more than a point.
The expected scoring environment also makes the +2.5 more valuable. With the total sitting around 46.5, possessions should carry added importance. In lower-scoring games, there are simply fewer opportunities for a favorite to create separation.
That gives James Madison two paths to cash the ticket: stay within a field goal in a close game, or win outright in a matchup the model already considers close to a coin flip.
The Play: James Madison +2.5
SMU +1.5 at Louisville
The market has already shown some respect for SMU.
Louisville opened around a 2.5-point favorite before the line moved to -1.5, taking away some of the value that existed at the opener. Even so, the current number still fits the profile we want.
The JTSS model gives Louisville a 51.8% projected win probability and SMU 48.2%, with a projected score of 29.5-28.8.
That is about as close to a coin-flip game as we can find.
Louisville has the home-field advantage, but the model separates these teams by just 0.7 points. Even after the market move, SMU is still getting +1.5 in a game where the projected margin is less than a point.
The Mustangs also have an offense capable of making the points unnecessary. Kevin Jennings gives SMU a quarterback who can keep the offense aggressive, and outside projections have also consistently treated this as a close matchup rather than a game Louisville should control.
Would +2.5 have been preferable? Absolutely.
But the move toward SMU doesn’t eliminate the play. It simply reduces the cushion. At +1.5, we are still taking points with a team JTSS believes has nearly a 48% chance to win outright.
That is enough to keep SMU on the Week 3 card.
The Play: SMU +1.5
Wyoming +1.5 at Central Michigan
If the first two games have the potential to be entertaining, Wyoming and Central Michigan may require a little more patience.
This matchup has all the ingredients of an ugly, low-scoring football game, and that is exactly why taking the short underdog has appeal.
The JTSS model gives Central Michigan a 53.0% projected win probability compared with 47.0% for Wyoming, projecting the Chippewas to win only 20.7-19.3.
The sportsbook spread of Central Michigan -1.5 is almost identical to the model’s projected margin, so this isn’t the same type of pure line-value play as James Madison.
The edge comes from the matchup.
Central Michigan recently managed only 13 points against Colgate, with quarterback Joe Labas’ replacement? No—keep to user-supplied context: the Chippewas’ offense has leaned heavily on quarterback Flores’ legs while producing very little through the air. Their red-zone efficiency has also been poor, converting at only 33.3%.
Wyoming has its own problems. The Cowboys have struggled badly on third down and enter with a negative turnover margin. That’s why this game sits third on the list rather than first.
But in a game with a total around 39.5, there may not be enough offensive separation for either team to pull away.
When the projected final margin is roughly one point, taking +1.5 with the underdog gives us some protection in exactly the kind of 21-20 or 17-16 game this matchup could become.
It may not be pretty. It doesn’t have to be.
The Play: Wyoming +1.5
Week 3 Walkin’ The Dogs Card
The common thread this week is simple: we aren’t asking any of these underdogs to overcome a large talent or projection gap.
James Madison is getting 2.5 in a game JTSS projects to be decided by barely a point. SMU is getting points despite carrying nearly a 48% chance to win outright. Wyoming is involved in a game where the model and market both expect very little separation.
After a 1-1 result last week, Walkin’ The Dogs enters Week 3 with three more teams capable of doing more than simply covering.
They can win.
Now we take these dogs for a walk. Best of luck!
Data and model projections: JustTheStatsSports.com.
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